Another democracy threatens the Mideast

Another democracy threatens the Mideast
By MIDDLE EAST TIMES
Published: May 08, 2008
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The 60th anniversary of Israel's founding has understandably focused much of the attention of Middle Eastern analysts on this old and familiar problem. But if they think this remains the prime security issue for the region, they may be looking in the wrong direction.

India this week successfully completed the testing program of its nuclear-capable Agni-3 missile, designed and developed by the state-owned Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO).

The third test launch took place May 7, and flew 3,000 kilometers to its targeted impact site in the Indian Ocean south of the equator from the Dhamra base in the eastern Indian state of Orissa. The full range is 3,500 kilometers, which would bring Shanghai most of southern China into its range.

Welcome to the new security landscape of Asia, with China and India now capable of repeating what in the bad old days of the Cold war used to be called "the balance of terror" between nuclear superpowers.

Since India and China are each dependent on Middle Eastern oil exports which pass through the Indian Ocean, good relations between these two Asian giants is of prime importance to all Middle Eastern countries. And having less than comfortable memories of living under a similar state of nuclear deterrence between two superpowers during the Cold War, the Middle East is going to have to get used to it all over again.

Of course, the relationship between India and China is far more open and friendly than that between the United States and the old Soviet Union. And there are further nuclear complications in the region involving Israel and Pakistan and the possible nuclear ambitions of Iran.

India has already brought into operational deployment the 700-kilometer-range Agni-1 missile, which is presumably targeted on Pakistan, and the 2,000-kilometer-range Agni-2 missile, which can reach Iran and much of the Gulf. Even before its expected "stretch" to a 5,000 kilometer range, the new Agni-3 missile is capable of hitting targets across the entire Middle East, as well as deep inside China.

Like the nuclear weapon the Agni-3 is intended to carry, the missile is a product of home-grown Indian technology. By contrast, Pakistan's shorter-range missiles depend on Chinese and North Korean technology. Indeed, the Indians are frustrated at the lack of any progress on the vaunted American promise of technological cooperation on space and rocketry. And the U.S. still bans any country from using an Indian launch vehicle to launch a satellite that contains even a single U.S.-made component.

Despite American foot-dragging, India is a nuclear power with the missile capabilities to exert wide regional influence. It also deploys the most formidable navy in the region, which will be even more capable once the fleet of new French-built Scorpene submarines take to sea. The Middle East is going to have to learn to live with another democratic superpower flexing muscles in its back yard.