tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-44938228795988868442024-03-13T04:30:42.298-07:00ZARBoere, afrikaners, afrikaans,TVL,OVS,NATAL, Kaap, cape,Gauteng,vryhied, freedom,Volk,Afrikaner geskiedenis
vlaams belang , verwoerd, de la rey , helde, boer , pretoria johannesburg , transvaal oranje vry staat, God , vaderland, herkomsVan Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.comBlogger100125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-20409116751747346582008-05-10T00:54:00.001-07:002008-05-10T00:54:38.810-07:00Another democracy threatens the MideastAnother democracy threatens the Mideast<br />By MIDDLE EAST TIMES<br />Published: May 08, 2008<br />TOOLBAR<br />Print Story<br />Add Comments<br />The 60th anniversary of Israel's founding has understandably focused much of the attention of Middle Eastern analysts on this old and familiar problem. But if they think this remains the prime security issue for the region, they may be looking in the wrong direction.<br /><br />India this week successfully completed the testing program of its nuclear-capable Agni-3 missile, designed and developed by the state-owned Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO).<br /><br />The third test launch took place May 7, and flew 3,000 kilometers to its targeted impact site in the Indian Ocean south of the equator from the Dhamra base in the eastern Indian state of Orissa. The full range is 3,500 kilometers, which would bring Shanghai most of southern China into its range.<br /><br />Welcome to the new security landscape of Asia, with China and India now capable of repeating what in the bad old days of the Cold war used to be called "the balance of terror" between nuclear superpowers.<br /><br />Since India and China are each dependent on Middle Eastern oil exports which pass through the Indian Ocean, good relations between these two Asian giants is of prime importance to all Middle Eastern countries. And having less than comfortable memories of living under a similar state of nuclear deterrence between two superpowers during the Cold War, the Middle East is going to have to get used to it all over again.<br /><br />Of course, the relationship between India and China is far more open and friendly than that between the United States and the old Soviet Union. And there are further nuclear complications in the region involving Israel and Pakistan and the possible nuclear ambitions of Iran.<br /><br />India has already brought into operational deployment the 700-kilometer-range Agni-1 missile, which is presumably targeted on Pakistan, and the 2,000-kilometer-range Agni-2 missile, which can reach Iran and much of the Gulf. Even before its expected "stretch" to a 5,000 kilometer range, the new Agni-3 missile is capable of hitting targets across the entire Middle East, as well as deep inside China.<br /><br />Like the nuclear weapon the Agni-3 is intended to carry, the missile is a product of home-grown Indian technology. By contrast, Pakistan's shorter-range missiles depend on Chinese and North Korean technology. Indeed, the Indians are frustrated at the lack of any progress on the vaunted American promise of technological cooperation on space and rocketry. And the U.S. still bans any country from using an Indian launch vehicle to launch a satellite that contains even a single U.S.-made component.<br /><br />Despite American foot-dragging, India is a nuclear power with the missile capabilities to exert wide regional influence. It also deploys the most formidable navy in the region, which will be even more capable once the fleet of new French-built Scorpene submarines take to sea. The Middle East is going to have to learn to live with another democratic superpower flexing muscles in its back yard.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-1309895046737354382008-05-05T08:57:00.000-07:002008-05-05T08:58:44.699-07:00South Africa: New Stats Show Millions More HIV Positivehttp://allafrica.com/stories/200805040006.html<br /> Cape Argus (Cape Town)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /><br />Email This Page<br /><br />Print This Page<br /><br />Comment on this article<br /><br />View comments<br /> <br /> <br /><br />Cape Argus (Cape Town)<br /><br />4 May 2008<br />Posted to the web 4 May 2008<br /><br />Eleanor Momberg<br /><br />Shocking new Aids statistics reveal that 2 million more South Africans are infected with HIV than the most recent government estimates show.<br /><br />According to statistics released by the Development Bank of South Africa (DBSA), more than 7,6 million South Africans are HIV-positive - 2,2 million more than the department of health's figures for 2007 state.<br /><br />Of these, about 6,1 million are the economically active people between the ages of 20 and 64, who could contribute to the country's economy.<br /><br />What makes these statistics more alarming is the fact that the data on which they are based are probably more reliable than the department of health's because they were collected at grassroots level and not based on estimates.<br /><br />The DBSA's 2007/2008 statistics state that:<br /><br /> * 7,6 million South Africans are HIV-positive;<br /><br /> * more than 27 percent of men and women aged between 20 and 64 are HIV positive;<br /><br /> * more than 92 000 babies have been infected, either perinatally or through mother's milk, in the past year;<br /><br /> * the total number of Aids sick by mid-2007 was 1 287 844;<br /><br /> * nearly 722 000 people have died of Aids-related diseases in the past year, bringing the total number of such deaths since 2003 to more than 3,7 million;<br /><br /> * in 2003, the accumulated total Aids-related deaths stood at just under 1 million; and<br /><br /> * 1,2 million of the country's 1,49 million orphans have lost their parents to Aids and this number is expected to increase by more than 336 000 this year alone.<br /><br />In contrast, the department of health stated last year that there were 5,4 million HIV-positive people in South Africa in 2006. And the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) estimated in its statistical summary for 2000 to 2015 that there would be 5,6 million HIV-positive people in the country this year.<br /><br />The ASSA had also estimated that there would be 370 000 Aids deaths in 2008.<br /><br />UNAids stated in its 2006 Global Report that 18,8 percent of the population of South Africa was infected, and that 320 000 people died of Aids-related deaths in the country during 2005.<br /><br />The latest DBSA information on one of the biggest killers in South Africa was collected from clinics, local municipalities, development planners, morgues and funeral homes.<br /><br />Updated annually, the figures are used by the bank to determine funding for municipal projects, such as the upgrading of infrastructure.<br /><br />Mark Heywood, the director of the Aids Law Project at the University of the Witwatersrand, said the new data, although untested, reflected the fact that the Aids pandemic remained a massive challenge for the country.<br /><br />"If these figures are accurate, the number of people dying is increasing and the number of people who should be receiving anti-retrovirals, and are not, is increasing," said Heywood.<br /><br />"The social cost of this is going to be enormous. We are not doing enough as a country and there is a danger that we are becoming complacent because there are now institutions such as the National Aids Council, as well as the fact that the government's approach to HIV and Aids has changed."<br /><br />The DBSA figures show that South Africa, a country with one of the highest HIV and Aids rates in the world, is reaching the peak of HIV infections and that intervention programmes are beginning to show some success.<br /><br />Johan Calitz, a senior demographer at the DBSA, attributed the decrease in infections in some regions to the success of nutrition schemes run by NGOs, other non-governmental intervention programmes and the government's roll-out of antiretroviral drugs.<br /><br />He said the number of infections was expected to "level out" by 2010, but that the death rate would continue to accelerate in the foreseeable future.<br /><br />"I think it will drop from 2010, and that from 2014 the population will begin to stabilise," he said, adding that this was on the condition that rates of immigration did not increase.<br /><br />Although the birthrate is declining nationally, and in particular in Gauteng, there is an increase in the total number of HIV-infected babies being born.<br /><br />Prevalence rates at antenatal clinics have increased to 31,67 percent - up 2 percent from last year.<br /><br />The good news is that the number of new infections in KwaZulu-Natal - the province worst affected by the pandemic - have dropped dramatically among adults aged between 20 and 59, despite the dramatic increase in the number of its Aids orphans.<br />Relevant Links<br />Southern Africa<br />HIV-Aids and STDs<br />Health and Medicine<br />South Africa<br /><br />Of concern, Calitz said, was the very high percentage of economically active people between the ages of 20 and 64 who were HIV positive - more than 3,5 million women and more than 3,4 million men.<br /><br />In Gauteng, there has been a marked decline in children under the age of four, down about 21 000 since 2003. Yet, there are about 2 000 more children under the age of four with HIV.<br /><br />Some of the highest rates of infection now appear to be among men over 50 and women over 40, with the rate among those adults of child-bearing age apparently slowing down due to illness and death.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-28695632478587461662008-05-01T04:04:00.001-07:002008-05-01T04:04:26.330-07:00How to Conquer GeorgiaHow to Conquer Georgia<br />30 April 2008By Yulia Latynina<br /> To Our Readers<br /><br />The Moscow Times welcomes letters to the editor. Letters for publication should be signed and bear the signatory's address and telephone number.<br />Letters to the editor should be sent by fax to (7-495) 232-6529, by e-mail to oped@imedia.ru, or by post. The Moscow Times reserves the right to edit letters.<br /><br />Email the Opinion Page Editor<br /><br /><br />Over the weekend, Foreign Ministry official Valery Kenyaikin cautioned Georgia against using NATO forces to resolve the territorial conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, saying Moscow would take "all possible measures to protect its citizens if fighting broke out" in these areas. It seems as though Russia is preparing for war with Georgia.<br /><br />A few days ago I returned from Chechnya, where I observed the swift, bloodless routing of the Vostok regiment by military groups loyal to Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov. Vostok is a local military unit in Khankala, Chechnya, composed of ethnic Chechens that is formally a part of the 42nd Division of the General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate.<br /><br />There are several reasons why Vostok was defeated. When Kadyrov cracked down on the unit, Vostok's commander, Sulim Yamadayev, could not come to Chechnya for four days. While Kadyrov's forces were rounding up and bullying Vostok's fighters, Yamadayev was attending a meeting at the Defense Ministry.<br /><br />In the first Chechen war, then-Brigadier General Yamadayev was probably in the mountains leading his troops, rather than attending meetings in Moscow. How effective can an army be when, during a military flare-up, its commander is attending meetings in Moscow instead of leading its troops on sight, where the conflict is taking place?<br /><br />Second, while the defeated Vostok soldiers were chastised for "selling out to the Russians," Yamadayev's own division commander told the Vostok troops that their leader, Yamadayev, had been placed on a wanted list for his suspected criminal activity. I don't know who the Vostok soldiers sold out to, but it is clear who Yamadayev's division commander betrayed. Can an army wage war with a division commander like this?<br /><br />Third, Vostok's commanders did not pay the unit's soldiers their salary in full. Officers simply faked the signatures in the payrolls, and professional soldiers received less than what their contracts stipulated. This is common practice in the Russian armed forces, and you can imagine how this helps increase recruitment into so-called elite, professional military units. Sometimes, officers line conscripts up outside at 6:30 a.m. in temperatures of minus 30 degrees Celsius and tell them that they cannot return to their barracks until they sign contracts for professional military service. Can this type of army ever be fit for battle?<br /><br />With these three elements taken into account, the Foreign Ministry's declaration that Russia will wage war if NATO invades Abkhazia is just as plausible as a declaration to protect Abkhazia in the event of a Martian invasion.<br /><br />If Moscow is truly serious about defending Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it must send troops -- and not just additional peacekeeping forces -- there instead of merely making a lot of noise. Making empty threats like Kenyaikin's is a no-win tactic any way you look at it. By doing so, Moscow is perceived as an irresponsible and irrational state and doesn't gain any territory. In the end, Russia is neither feared nor respected.<br /><br />There is a simple rule that is well known even to street bandits: If you brandish your gun, be prepared to fire. But when Moscow whips out its gun, it only shouts, "We are offended," and then shoves the pistol back into its holster.<br /><br />But all is not lost. I have a proposal for our leaders that will help them conquer Georgia -- and it is quite simple. All the Kremlin has to do is to convince Georgian officers to attend a training course at the Defense Ministry. This would be a brilliant military tactic. We will teach the Georgian officers to attend meetings instead of battles.<br /><br />Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio.<br /><br />http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/362439.htmVan Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-18742954401016550722008-05-01T04:03:00.001-07:002008-05-01T04:03:19.934-07:00Russia Will Send More Troops to AbkhaziaRussia Will Send More Troops to Abkhazia<br />30 April 2008By Matt Siegel / Staff WriterThe Foreign Ministry announced Tuesday that Russia would bolster its peacekeeping forces in Abkhazia in response to Georgian plans to invade the breakaway region.<br /><br />Tbilisi denied that it had plans to invade the region, which has enjoyed de facto independence from Georgia since a separatist war in the 1990s.<br /><br />The exchange marked a significant escalation in tensions between the two countries.<br /><br />The Foreign Ministry said it had intelligence that Georgia had moved more than 1,500 servicemen into the upper Kodor Gorge region and was preparing "a bridgehead" in advance of an invasion.<br /><br />"According to the information coming in, including from CIS peacekeepers in the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict zone, Georgia is sending weapons, fuel and lubricants, food and other technical means, as well as personnel of the Georgian armed forces to Upper Kodor," the ministry said in a statement.<br /><br />Russia already maintains a sizeable peacekeeping force in Abkhazia and another breakaway region, South Ossetia. Tbilisi accuses Russia of propping up the rebel governments.<br /><br />Georgian Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said Interior Ministry servicemen were in Kodor Gorge but denied the presence of Defense Ministry forces.<br /><br />"What we have there are only police forces to ensure security for the local population," he told Reuters.<br /><br />"All recent UN monitoring missions confirmed that Georgia is behaving in this region in accordance with previous agreements," he said.<br /><br />The United Nations monitoring mission in Tbilisi could not be reached to confirm Kutelia's comments on Tuesday. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which also has monitors in the region, was unable to comment on security conditions within the conflict zone.<br /><br />Russia's Defense Ministry, meanwhile, vowed to use military force if necessary to protect Russian citizens in Abkhazia. Most residents in the region have Russian passports.<br /><br />The ministry said in a statement that it would deliver "a suitable and tough response" to anyone who attacked Russian citizens, echoing comments made Friday by Valery Kenyaikin, the Foreign Ministry's special envoy for the Commonwealth of Independent States.<br /><br />UN foreign policy chief Javier Solana planned to urge for calm from Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday, said spokeswoman Christina Gallach. The pair was meeting in Luxembourg as part of ongoing EU-Russia talks.<br /><br />"The basic message [Solana] is going to say is that we're right now in a process of escalation of tension and what we have to do on all sides is to calm down," she said by telephone from Luxembourg.<br /><br />Relations between the two countries worsened earlier this month after Georgia accused the Russian military of shooting down an unmanned spy plane over Abkhazia, a charge denied by Moscow.<br /><br />Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili convened an emergency meeting of his Security Council on Tuesday, the second such meeting in less than two weeks. Afterward, Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze told reporters that "from now on, we will consider any additional soldier or military hardware [in the Abkhaz conflict zone] as illegal, as potential aggressors and a potential source of destabilization." Saakashvili was to address the country on Georgian national television on Tuesday night. The address was to be made specifically to the residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Itar-Tass reported.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-51592567827359819722008-05-01T00:50:00.000-07:002008-05-01T00:52:29.790-07:00NATO meets on escalating Georgia-Russian tensionshttp://www.besternews.com/related/International+Herald+Tribune/NATO+meets+on+escalating+Georgia-Russian+tensions/?ref=top<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />NATO meets on escalating Georgia-Russian tensions<br />Reuters<br />Published: April 30, 2008<br /> E-Mail Article<br /> Listen to Article<br /> Printer-Friendly<br /> 3-Column Format<br /> Translate<br /> Share Article<br /> <br /> Text Size<br /><br />BRUSSELS: NATO ambassadors discussed escalating tensions between alliance hopeful Georgia and Russia on Wednesday ahead of a meeting with Moscow's NATO envoy.<br /><br />The regular meetings come after Russia on Tuesday sent extra peacekeeping troops to Georgia's breakaway Abkhazia region to counter what it called Georgian plans for an attack, prompting the European Union to accuse Moscow of stoking tensions.<br /><br />A NATO spokesman said Georgia would be discussed at both meetings, but declined further comment.<br /><br />On Monday, NATO ambassadors met Georgian presidential envoy David Bakradze in Brussels. They reiterated support for Georgia and criticized Russian warnings about the possible use of force.<br /><br />In a further show of support, the 26-nation military alliance also announced plans for the envoys to visit Georgia before the end of the year.<br />Today in Europe<br />May 1968 - a watershed in French life<br />Euro nears milestone, but faces north-south divide<br />NATO accuses Russia of stirring tensions in rebel Georgia areas<br /><br />The mounting crisis between the two ex-Soviet neighbors has alarmed Georgia's Western allies, who see Georgia as a future NATO member and a vital energy transit route.<br /><br />After discussing Georgia with EU ministers in Luxembourg on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Moscow would use military force if Georgia attacked Abkhazia or a second Georgian separatist region, South Ossetia.<br /><br />European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said after the talks that the Russian deployment of extra peacekeepers in Abkhazia was unwise at a time of rising tensions and reiterated EU support for Georgia's territorial integrity.<br /><br />On Wednesday, Dimitrij Rupel, foreign minister of EU president Slovenia, said the European Union wanted to see the situation resolved in a "tolerant and diplomatic manner."<br /><br />"After yesterday's talks I believe that this will happen," he told a news conference in Ljubljana.<br /><br />Reporting by David Brunnstrom in Brussels and Manca Ulcar in Ljubljana.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-87111280477201408782008-05-01T00:48:00.001-07:002008-05-01T00:48:15.576-07:00U.S. says Iran, Syria destabilizing regionU.S. says Iran, Syria destabilizing region<br />By CLAUDE SALHANI (Editor, Middle East Times)<br />Published: April 30, 2008<br />A U.S. air force F-22 Raptor aircraft refuels 26,000 feet above Alaska. "Terrorists consider information operations a principal part of their effort," the latest country report on terrorism says, adding: "Use of the Internet for propaganda, recruiting, fundraising and, increasingly, training, has made the Internet a 'virtual safe haven.'" (Photo by DoD)<br />TOOLBAR<br />Print Story<br />Add Comments<br />The year 2007 was marked by the affiliation of regional insurgent groups with al-Qaida, who along with its associated networks remained the greatest terrorist threat to the United States and its partners in 2007, according to the 2007 Country Reports on Terrorism released by the U.S. State department Wednesday.<br /><br />The report states that al-Qaida has reconstituted some of its pre-9/11 operational capabilities through the exploitation of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), replacement of captured or killed operational lieutenants, and the restoration of some central control by its top leadership, in particular Ayman al-Zawahiri.<br /><br />Although Osama bin Laden remained the group's ideological figurehead, Zawahiri has emerged as al-Qaida's strategic and operational planner.<br /><br />The report finds that al-Qaida and its affiliates seek to exploit local grievances for their own local and global purposes. "They pursue their own goals, often at large personal cost to the local population." They have become adaptive, reacting quickly in response to countermeasures. Al-Qaida utilizes terrorism, as well as subversion, propaganda, and open warfare; it seeks weapons of mass destruction in order to inflict the maximum possible damage on anyone who stands in its way, including other Muslims and/or elders, women, and children.<br /><br />Combined efforts by the security forces of both Afghanistan and Pakistan have failed to quell the rise of al-Qaida. Rather, the group has now greater mobility and ability to conduct training and operational planning, "particularly that targeting Western Europe and the United States."<br /><br />Proving their ability to adapt to rapidly changing situations al-Qaida has managed to replace "numerous senior operatives who were captured or killed.<br /><br />Last year was marked by the affiliation of regional insurgent groups with al-Qaida, notably the growing threat in North Africa posed by the Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). Following the September 2006 merger with al-Qaida, the GSPC renamed itself al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). AQIM is still primarily focused on the Algerian government.<br /><br />In 2007 AQIM carried out eight suicide attacks that resulted in large numbers of government and civilian casualties. The group recruits suicide bombers from easily exploitable groups, such as the teenagers used in the July 11 and Sept. 8 attacks, or the elderly and terminally ill, as in the Dec. 11 UN attack.<br /><br />But al-Qaida has also suffered setbacks, as in Iraq. The group's alliance of convenience it enjoyed since the start of the U.S. invasion with Sunni groups came to an abrupt and violence divorce as many of these groups turned to support the U.S. war effort, forcing some fighters from Baghdad and Anbar province into the northern Iraqi provinces of Ninawa, Diyala, and Salah ad Din. Regardless of the progress achieved, al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) remains a threat.<br /><br />And in Africa, the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia in late 2006 and the subsequent deployment of African Union forces there have kept al-Qaida East Africa leadership, and elements of the Council of Islamic Courts that harbored them, on the run.<br /><br />This did not prevent al-Qaida from launching a new assault using information as its primary weapon. According to the State Department al-Qaida has increased all throughout 2007 its propaganda efforts seeking to inspire support in Muslim populations, undermine Western confidence, and enhance the perception of a powerful worldwide movement.<br /><br />"Terrorists consider information operations a principal part of their effort. Use of the Internet for propaganda, recruiting, fundraising and, increasingly, training, has made the Internet a 'virtual safe haven,'" states the report. "The international community has yet to muster a coordinated and effectively resourced program to counter extremist propaganda," warns the U.S. government analysis of the state of terrorism around the world.<br /><br />THE TALIBAN<br /><br />Despite efforts by the Afghan government to strengthen its national institutions, the Taliban continued to threaten the security of Afghanistan. Taliban insurgents murdered local leaders and attacked Pakistani government outposts in the FATA.<br /><br />STATE SPONSORS OF TERRORISM<br /><br />Iran remains "the most significant state sponsor of terrorism," according to the U.S. State Department.<br /><br />"A critically important element of Iranian national security strategy is its ability to conduct terrorist operations abroad. Iranian leaders believe this capability helps safeguard the regime by deterring United States or Israeli attacks, distracting and weakening the United States, enhancing Iran's regional influence through intimidation, and helping to drive the United States from the Middle East."<br /><br />Hezbollah, designated a "Foreign Terrorist Organization," the report says, "is key to Iran's terrorism strategy."<br /><br />The report points to the Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah as receiving support from Iran and Syria, and accuses them of continuing to undermine the elected government of Lebanon. "They remain a serious security threat," according to the U.S. State Department.<br /><br />The Islamic republic is judged in the U.S. State department report of continuing "to threaten its neighbors and destabilize Iraq by providing weapons, training, and funding to select Iraqi Shia militants."<br /><br />It also accuses what it calls Iran's "proxy groups" of perpetrating violence and killing U.S. troops.<br /><br />Foreign terrorists continued to transit via Syria en route to and from Iraq; a report to Congress stated that nearly 90 percent of all foreign fighters entering Iraq are transiting from Syria. In addition, the government of Iran has recently begun an effort to expand commercial and diplomatic ties throughout the Western Hemisphere. Iran has, in the past, used diplomatic missions to support the activities of Hezbollah operatives.<br /><br />Countries that continue to support terrorism undermines efforts to eliminate it, finds the 2007 Country Report on Terrorism.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-42972696850229125042008-05-01T00:35:00.000-07:002008-05-01T00:36:11.062-07:00Russian moves inflame tensions with GeorgiaRussian moves inflame tensions with Georgia<br /> <br />01 May 2008 07:18<br />Cisco Easy Rent - Get the network you need now at 4% below price - Click here!<br />Nato on Wednesday accused Russia of ramping up tensions with neighbour Georgia and said Moscow's rapid build-up of troops in the breakaway republic of Abkhazia threatened Georgia's territorial integrity.<br /><br />The alliance called on Russia and Georgia to resolve their differences over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia's two rebel republics, amid ominous signs of a looming military confrontation.<br /><br />Nato's Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, also derided Russian claims that a Nato jet may have shot down a Georgian drone last week over Abkhazia. Georgia says a Russian MiG-29 shot it down. Russia's Nato envoy had suggested the alliance was responsible.<br /><br />"The secretary general had said he'd eat his tie if it turned out that a Nato Mig-29 had magically appeared in Abkhazia and shot down a Georgian drone," Nato spokesperson James Appathurai said.<br /><br />"The steps taken [by Russia] ... and the rhetoric that has been used concerning the threat of force have undermined Georgia's territorial integrity," he declared.<br /><br />On Tuesday, Russia accused Georgia of plotting to attack Abkhazia, and announced that it was deploying additional troops and military equipment in the region. About 1 000 Russian peacekeepers are already stationed in Abkhazia, which broke away from Georgia following a 1992 to 1993 war.<br /><br />Georgia has denied it has plans to invade Abkhazia, a small and picturesque territory on the sub-tropical eastern coast of the Black Sea. Georgia's special presidential envoy, David Bakradze, has appealed for international solidarity, holding talks on Wednesday with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana.<br /><br />"Georgia is being pushed to the edge of a precipice. Without credible and concerted reaction, we are confronted by the prospect of a situation similar to that in northern Cyprus or analogous to what occurred in Taiwan," Bakradze said.<br /><br />He added: "Russia's end goal now appears to be to force Georgia into armed conflict. It would thus strip it of the opportunity to earn Nato membership, while finally annexing Georgia's territories."<br /><br />Abkhazia's separatist leadership has echoed Russian claims that Georgia is massing forces in the Upper Kodori Valley -- a strategic enclave controlled by Georgian forces but inside rebel-held territory. About 1 500 troops were there, it said.<br /><br />Recent developments are likely to alarm the United States and the EU. Both have expressed support for Georgia and its territorial integrity.<br /><br />Russia has lifted economic sanctions against Abkhazia and given passports to most of its citizens. On Tuesday Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said that Moscow had a right to defend them if they came under Georgian attack. On Wednesday night, Abkhazia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Shamba, confirmed Russia had boosted its troop contingent from 2 000 to 3 000. -- © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2008<br />Related articles<br /># Russia, Georgia tensions riseVan Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-21494175508261527032008-04-28T01:48:00.000-07:002008-04-28T01:49:43.532-07:00Die Mighty Men-saamtrekDis die begin van die einde van die stryd <br /><br />Now its the End game :<br /><br /><br /> 26/04/2008 16:42 - (SA) <br />Hanlie Retief gesels met Angus Buchan<br /> <br /><br /> Druk artikel <br /> E-pos storie aan 'n vriend<br />Click here!<br /><br />Dis in Angus Buchan se stem, in sy eenvoudige, skoon woorde.<br /><br />Dis ’n warmte wat jy vóél, 2 000 km ver, oor die telefoon.<br /><br />“Jy bel my op die regte tyd,” sê Angus Buchan. “My hart loop oor vandag. Ek is emosioneel, ek is ’n bietjie oorstelp, want ’n wonderwerk het hier op my plaas gebeur. ’n Herlewing . . .”<br /><br />Dis Maandagoggend. Die Mighty Men-saamtrek is skaars ure verby. Op sy plaas lê die spore van 60 000 mans nog in die stof.<br /><br />Die hele Buchan-familie, skoonseuns de lot, het hul vingers stomp gewerk vir die konferensie. Die oudste seun het die sang (“met baie Afrikaanse gospelliedjies”) gelei, die ander het gehelp op die reuse-kampterrein. “Ons het toilette reg gehad, warm storte, drie gratis etes per dag,” sê hy en jy hoor: ons kon voorsien. Ons kon.<br /><br />Sy vrou, Jill, is besig om in te pak vir ’n asemskep aan die kus ná al die organisasie en emosie van die naweek. “Jill sal my lós as ons nie ’n bietjie alleen wegbreek nie,” skerts hy.<br /><br />Haar man behoort aan God. Haar man behoort aan almal.<br /><br />Hy sukkel só om ’n paar minute afgeknyp te kry vir ons onderhoud dat hy naderhand maar koers kies na die plaas se kapel toe, “waar ons in vrede kan gesels”, lag hy in die drafstap.<br /><br />“So ja, hier’s ek. Nou’s dit net ek en jy en God. Kan ons eers saambid voor die onderhoud begin?”<br /><br />In ’n paar woorde vra hy seën op die onderhoud.<br /><br />En dan vertél hy. Van daardie oseaan van gesigte, alkante toe, tot ver in die donkerte, met nie één man wat geroer het nie, aangegryp, wagtend op die boodskap, vir wat God gaan sê.<br /><br />“Gód,” beklemtoon hy, “nie Angus nie,” net sodat jy nie dalk ’n wanindruk kry van dié nederige boer nie.<br /><br />Dit eggo in die honderde e-pos-briewe en SMS’e wat Rapport oorstroom het: “Dit was die Here se naweek,” skryf die mense, “Oom Angus” was net hul gewaardeerde tussenganger.<br /><br />“As jy gesien het hoe 60 000 mans op hul knieë hul sonde voor God bely, wéét jy dis net God wat dit kon doen.<br /><br />“Sou enige van die groot Christelike leiers dit kon laat gebeur het? Nee. En ek die heel minste. Ek is nie ’n Ray Mc- Cauley of ’n Billy Graham nie. Ek is net ’n dienskneg van die Here.”<br /><br />Een van die punte van kritiek op die naweek is dat dit weinig meer was as bang, desperate mense wat nie meer herwaarts of derwaarts weet nie wat in ’n geestelike kudde saamgetrek het.<br /><br />“Beslis nie,” sê Angus en bly ’n sekonde stil. “Hierdie is God se tyd. ’n Tyd vir die Here om te werk. Wat hier gebeur het, is groot, gróót.<br /><br />“Ek het mans hier gesien wat nie met ’n lang paal aan ’n kerk sou raak nie. Hulle soek reguit antwoorde, maar hulle kry dit nie by die regering nie. En hulle soek nie teologie nie. Hulle soek Jesus.<br /><br />“Ek dink hulle het gekom, want hulle’s honger en hulle soek die Waarheid. Daar’s vir hulle leuens vertel, of nie die volle waarheid nie. Die waarheid is die Woord van God.”<br /><br />’n Man het vir hom gesê hy’t nie net met 60 000 mans gepraat nie, maar ook met al die gesinne wat hulle verteenwoordig, die maatskappye, skole en sportklubs, fabrieke, myne, plase . . .<br /><br />“Nou word dit amper ’n pandemie deur die land. Daar gáán nie ’n herlewing wees nie, dit ís ’n herlewing, my girl!”<br /><br />Hoekom dink hy het God hóm, Angus Buchan, gekies?<br /><br />“Ek het daardie vraag al baie gevra. ‘Stru, ek weet nie . . . Van my hegte vriende sê dis omdat ek ’n hart vir mense het.”<br /><br />Daar’s ’n krakie in sy stem en jy kan hoor hoe vroetel hy met sy sakdoek.<br /><br />“Ek is nie ’n baie slim man nie. Maar ek ken God. Ek loop al dertig jaar die pad met Hom saam. Al wat ek dié naweek gedoen het, was om vir die mans te vertel wat God vir my gedoen het. En om hulle aan te moedig dat Jesus dit ook vir hulle kan doen.<br /><br />“Ek’s ’n koninkryk-man, nie ’n em-pire-bouer nie. Ek rokkel nie mense van hul kerke af nie, maar motiveer hulle om in te skakel by hul kerkgemeenskappe.” Hy’t nie sy eie kerk nie, was nooit Bybelkollege toe nie, maar is deur die skool van die lewe.<br /><br />Hy bly ’n oomblik stil. Bedink weer my vraag.<br /><br />“Almal van ons het iewers ’n droom om iets te word, iets te beteken. My droom is om mense se lewe aan te raak. Dis nou ver oortref.”<br /><br />Geloof ís Angus Buchan se lewe. Van 18 Februarie 1979, toe hy in ’n Greytownse kerkie opgestaan het vir God, deur sy lewe van misoeste en geil lande as aartappelboer, deur nege boeke, waarvan die treffer Faith Like Potatoes ’n fliek geword het, loop geloof . . . “tot by hierdie tent hier buite, die grootste ter wêreld. Miljoene rande het die afgelope twee maande deur my hande gegaan, in by die een hand, uit by die ander. Ons het nie begroot nie, God het betaal.”<br /><br />Nie een keer het Angus Buchan van die verhoog af geld gevra nie. Geen mandjies is rondgestuur nie.<br /><br />As jy glo, sê hy eenvoudig, sal God voorsien.<br /><br />“Die naweek was ’n pluimpie vir julle Afrikaanssprekendes, julle was daar in jul menigte – 90% was Afrikaans. Wónderlik. Ek’s ’n Ingelsman. Ek’t vir God gevra hoekom gebruik Hy my en nie ’n Afrikaanse dominee nie . . .”<br /><br />Hy’t dertig jaar gelede in Greytown aangekom en met níks ’n lewe begin. “Dis hoekom ek Suid-Afrika so liefhet. Dié land het vir my ’n lewe gegee.”<br /><br />Onlangs in Australië, was hy tussen oud-Suid-Afrikaners wat huis toe verlang. “Mense moet besef hulle vat hul eie probleme saam, waar hulle ook al gaan. Voordat jy loop, stryk dit éérs uit. En onthou, elke land het maar sy probleme.<br /><br />“As God vir jou sê jy moet gaan, dan moet jy. Maar as God dit nié sê nie, moet jy bly.”<br /><br />Hoe gaan jy weet?<br /><br />“Deur stiltetyd. Nie net ’n paar minute nie, die eerste uur van jou dag. As jy daarmee aanhou, sal jy hoor wat God vir jou sê.”<br /><br />Hoekom Mighty Men – dis net ’n paar letters weg van Macho Men? En hoekom was vroue nie welkom nie?<br /><br />Hy skater van die lag.<br /><br />“Ek hoor sommer jy’s ’n regte Afrikaanse meisie wat reguit vrae vra! Ek’s ’n man vir reguit antwoorde.<br /><br />“Die Bybel praat van Dawid se ‘mighty men who achieved great feats for God’. In ons samelewing word manlikheid afgebreek, mans verloor hul selfbeeld en selfvertroue, hulle voel ontoereikend. Hulle sleep ’n klomp pyn met hulle saam, uit die kinderjare, diensplig, regstellende aksie, afgeneemde plase . . .<br /><br />“Ek het gevoel God wou hê ons moet die naweek gebruik om mans se manlikheid te herstel, om hulle weer ‘mighty men to God’ te maak.”<br /><br />Mans moet weer hul regmatige plek in die huis inneem. “En dis nie bókant die vrou nie, maar langs haar. Praat maar met Jill, my vrou, my beste vriend . . . sy sal dádelik vir jou sê ek’s nie haar baas nie!<br /><br />“As ’n man sy verantwoordelikhede abdikeer, word die vrou onseker en die kinders ongedissiplineerd. En dit kring uit na die hele land.<br /><br />“Ek is ’n gesinsman, maar God het my dit op die hart gedruk om dié konferensie te reël j?is ter wille van vroue en kinders. Want hul mans en pa’s is stukkend.<br /><br />“Hier, alleen, kon hulle sonder skaamkry voor die vroue práát oor hul woede, bitterheid, vrees, en die Heilige Gees kans gee om hulle gesond te maak.<br /><br />“Dit het gewérk. Daar was soveel trane. Manne wat hul koppe op my skouer sit, wat dit nog nooit reggekry het om dinge net te laat gáán nie.<br /><br />“Dit was nie ’n naweek van grappies of vermaak nie. Herlewing kom deur trane en gebrokenheid. Dit begin in die huis, waar gesinne weer verenig moet word. Dan kring dit uit, op en op, tot in die parlement!”<br /><br />Hy lag saggies. “Nó? raak ek aan die brand!”<br /><br />Maar die eintlike toets kom eers volgende week, volgende maand, as alles weer in die ou groewe terugval. As al die emosies van sy Mighty Men-saamtrek afgeblaas het soos ’n ou trekkerband . . .<br /><br />Gaan dit hó??<br /><br />“Ja, ek glo so, want dit was nie m?ne nie, dit was Gód se konferensie. Die bewyse daarvan sal in die pelgrims se lewe en getuienis wees. Ek het gepraat oor práktiese Christenskap, oor lewe-in-Jesus.<br /><br />“Dis wat ek wéét: As ons na God terugdraai, sal Hy ons land genees. Dit het dié naweek begin.”<br /><br />Hy bly ’n oomblik peinsend stil. Ver in die agtergrond hoor jy mense roep.<br /><br />Dan sê hy, ter afsluiting: “As dit nié hou nie, dan’t ons gróót probleme in hierdie land. Die land het ’n tekort aan leierskap, aan mighty men.”<br /><br />Lank nadat ons gegroet het, lank ná sy kort totsiens-gebed, verbeel ek hom nog daar op sy plaas. In sy blokkieshemp en boerehoed, met sy kenkuiltjie en glimlag.<br /><br />Nederige dienskneg. Mighty manVan Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-78674918962898114912008-03-10T06:06:00.001-07:002008-03-10T06:06:48.045-07:00Analysis: A Mideast nuclear war?Analysis: A Mideast nuclear war?<br />By MARTIN WALKER (UPI Editor Emeritus)<br />Published: November 22, 2007<br />TOOLBAR<br />Print Story<br />Add Comments<br />Anthony Cordesman may be the most influential man in Washington that most people have never heard of. A former director of intelligence assessment for the secretary of defense and director of policy and planning in the Department of Energy, he is now the top strategic guru at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.<br /><br />Most serious politicians and journalists have for some years based their analyses of the Iraq war and its aftermath on his universally respected research. Cordesman is a facts man who likes and reveres good data and cool, clinical analysis as the keystones of policymaking.<br /><br />He has now turned his laser-like research and forensic intelligence skills to studying the real implication of the endless diplomatic minuet at the United Nations over Iran's nuclear ambitions. In the real world, this matters mainly because an Iranian nuclear capability would transform the power balance in the wider Middle East, and leave the region and the rest of us living under the constant prospect of a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel.<br /><br />This would mean, Cordesman suggests, some 16 million to 28 million Iranians dead within 21 days, and between 200,000 and 800,000 Israelis dead within the same time frame. The total of deaths beyond 21 days could rise very much higher, depending on civil defense and public health facilities, where Israel has a major advantage.<br /><br />It is theoretically possible that the Israeli state, economy and organized society might just survive such an almost-mortal blow. Iran would not survive as an organized society. "Iranian recovery is not possible in the normal sense of the term," Cordesman notes.<br /><br />The difference in the death tolls is largely because Israel is believed to have more nuclear weapons of very much higher yield (some of 1 megaton), and Israel is deploying the Arrow advanced anti-missile system in addition to its Patriot batteries. Fewer Iranian weapons would get through.<br /><br />The difference in yield matters. The biggest bomb that Iran is expected to have is 100 kilotons, which can inflict third-degree burns on exposed flesh at 8 miles; Israel's 1-megaton bombs can inflict third-degree burns at 24 miles. Moreover, the radiation fallout from an airburst of such a 1-megaton bomb can kill unsheltered people at up to 80 miles within 18 hours as the radiation plume drifts. (Jordan, by the way, would suffer severe radiation damage from an Iranian strike on Tel Aviv.)<br /><br />Cordesman assumes that Iran, with less than 30 nuclear warheads in the period after 2010, would aim for the main population centers of Tel Aviv and Haifa, while Israel would have more than 200 warheads and far better delivery systems, including cruise missiles launched from its 3 Dolphin-class submarines.<br /><br />The assumption is that Israel would be going for Iran's nuclear development centers in Tehran, Natanz, Ardekan, Saghand, Gashin, Bushehr, Aral, Isfahan and Lashkar A'bad. Israel would also likely target the main population centers of Tehran, Tabriz, Qazvin, Isfahan, Shiraz, Yazd, Kerman, Qom, Ahwaz and Kermanshah. Cordesman points out that the city of Tehran, with a population of 15 million in its metropolitan area, is "a topographic basin with mountain reflector. Nearly ideal nuclear killing ground."<br /><br />But it does not end there. Cordesman points out that Israel would need to keep a "reserve strike capability to ensure no other power can capitalize on Iranian strike." This means Israel would have to target "key Arab neighbors" - in particular Syria and Egypt.<br /><br />Cordesman notes that Israel would have various options, including a limited nuclear strike on the region mainly inhabited by the Alawite minority from which come the ruling Assad dynasty. A full-scale Israeli attack on Syria would kill up to 18 million people within 21 days; Syrian recovery would not be possible. A Syrian attack with all its reputed chemical and biological warfare assets could kill up to 800,000 Israelis, but Israeli society would recover.<br /><br />An Israeli attack on Egypt would likely strike at the main population centers of Cairo, Alexandria, Damietta, Port Said, Suez, Luxor and Aswan. Cordesman does not give a death toll here, but it would certainly be in the tens of millions. It would also destroy the Suez Canal and almost certainly destroy the Aswan Dam, sending monstrous floods down the Nile to sweep away the glowing rubble. It would mean the end of Egypt as a functioning society.<br /><br />Cordesman also lists the oilwells, refineries and ports along the Gulf that could also be targets in the event of a mass nuclear response by an Israel convinced that it was being dealt a potentially mortal blow. Being contained within the region, such a nuclear exchange might not be Armageddon for the human race; it would certainly be Armageddon for the global economy.<br /><br />So in clear, concise and chillingly forensic style, Cordesman spells out that the real stakes in the crisis that is building over Iran's nuclear ambitions would certainly include the end of Persian civilization, quite probably the end of Egyptian civilization, and the end of the Oil Age. This would also mean the end of globalization and the extraordinary accretions in world trade and growth and prosperity that are hauling hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indians and others out of poverty.<br /><br />Cordesman concludes his chilling but dismayingly logical survey with the warning: "The only way to win is not to playVan Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-28386399878673963412008-03-10T05:58:00.000-07:002008-03-10T05:59:20.269-07:00Analysis: Iran's secret Syrian planhttp://www.metimes.com/International/2007/11/19/analysis_irans_secret_syrian_plan/7451/<br />Analysis: Iran's secret Syrian plan<br />By OLIVIER GUITTA<br />Published: November 19, 2007<br />Syria's President Bashar Assad. Some Lebanese commentators say Syria's alliance with Iran should not be a reason to isolate it from the Arab fold by boycotting next month's Arab summit in Damascus, saying this would only deepen the inter-Arab rifts and push Damascus further into Tehran's lap. (KRT via Newscom)<br />TOOLBAR<br />Print Story<br />Add Comments<br />Israel has been providing intelligence and satellite images to the U.S. about a secret Syrian nuclear program for several months, according to media reports. Discussions between Israel and the United States took place last summer regarding a possible strike. But when Israel found the matter so pressing that when they realized the U.S. was not ready to act, on September 6 they attacked a Syrian nuclear site. Hence the question: what is Syria really up to or more to the point what is Iran up to?<br /><br />First, let's start with an underreported explosion that occurred in a Syrian military base outside Aleppo on July 26. Jane's Defense Weekly reported, citing Syrian defense sources, as saying the explosion took place during a test to fit a "Scud C" missile with a mustard-gas warhead. It quoted the sources as saying the explosion occurred when fuel caught fire in the missile production laboratory.<br /><br />But there might be another explanation. Kuwait's Al Seyassah newspaper recently reported that a Shiite Lebanese religious cleric claimed the Iranians were allegedly supervising a chemical weapons manufacturing program and that tens of Iranian experts and engineers died as a result of that explosion. He also said Israelis attacked the base. He added that Western officials told him they received proof from Israel on the Syrian chemical weapons program. Even if Israel's involvement is not proven, what remains sure is that it must be very happy that a chemical weapons facility in Syria has been partly destroyed.<br /><br />Now regarding the September 6 strike; while we may never know what really occurred, what remains sure is that the situation is direr than one could imagine and that most likely, Israel did not just bomb a nuclear site in the early stages. Indeed, the silence of the international community and especially the Arab world after the attack is a first, and it shows the gravity of what happened. Even though Syria and its Iranian sponsor are detested, and in the case of Iran feared, in the Muslim world, the fact that there was no condemnation of Israel at the U.N. could be interpreted as a tacit relief that Israel acted.<br /><br />Another proof of what transpired came from ranking Republicans on the House Intelligence and Foreign Relations committees, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Peter Hoekstra, who were briefed on the Israeli strike and sworn to secrecy. They wrote an op-ed in the October 20 Wall Street Journal clearly underlining the seriousness of the situation regarding both the North Korean and Iranian involvement in the Syrian arms program.<br /><br />Finally, the fact that the Bush administration (including President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and most notably Defense Secretary Robert Gates) has been ramping up the rhetoric and taking action against Iran (including the latest sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards) in the past week, might also be linked to what really happened in Syria.<br /><br />The Syrian story is far from over: in fact, on October 23, Al Seyassah ran a story about potential new secret nuclear sites in Syria. According to Western sources cited by the paper, it is possible that Syria is developing other nuclear sites with the help of North Korea, Iran and Iraqi experts, the latter who fled their country at the start of the Iraq war in 2003. In fact, observation satellites have allegedly located in Syria at least two other sites similar to the one destroyed by Israel last month.<br /><br />Iran's handwriting is all over the wall from the chemical to the nuclear arms program in Syria. Indeed, in research conducted last year as part of an article published in Washington's The Examiner, this reporter delved into Syrian's secret nuclear program, making the point that Syria might actually be "Plan B" for Iran. By helping develop nuclear sites in Syria, strikes on Iran might turn out to be useless. This was a smart strategy until Israel bombed the Syrian nuclear site on September 6 and made the world notice.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-8168548049935670302008-02-25T23:14:00.001-08:002008-02-25T23:14:41.658-08:00UN warns of new face of hungerUN warns of new face of hunger<br /> <br />26 February 2008 07:17<br />Click here!<br />The United Nations on Monday warned that it no longer has enough money to keep global malnutrition at bay this year in the face of a dramatic upward surge in world commodity prices, which have created a "new face of hunger".<br /><br />"We will have a problem in coming months," said Josette Sheeran, the head of the UN's World Food Programme (WFP). "We will have a significant gap if commodity prices remain this high, and we will need an extra half-a-billion dollars just to meet existing assessed needs."<br /><br />With voluntary contributions from the world's wealthy nations, the WFP feeds 73-million people in 78 countries, less than a 10th of the total number of the world's undernourished. Its agreed budget for 2008 was $2,9-billion. But with annual food-price increases around the world of up to 40% and dramatic hikes in fuel costs, that budget is no longer enough even to maintain current food deliveries.<br /><br />The shortfall is all the more worrying as it comes at a time when populations, many in urban areas, who had thought themselves secure in their food supply, are now unable to afford basic foodstuffs. Afghanistan has recently added an extra 2,5-million people to the number it says are at risk of malnutrition<br /><br />"This is the new face of hunger," Sheeran said. "There is food on shelves but people are priced out of the market. There is vulnerability in urban areas we have not seen before. There are food riots in countries where we have not seen them before."<br /><br />WFP officials say the extraordinary increases in the global price of basic foods were caused by a "perfect storm" of factors, including a rise in demand for animal feed from increasingly prosperous populations in India and China, the use of more land and agricultural produce for biofuels, and climate change.<br /><br />The impact has been felt around the world.<br /><br />Food riots have broken out in Morocco, Yemen, Mexico, Guinea, Mauritania, Senegal and Uzbekistan, and Pakistan has reintroduced rationing for the first time in two decades. Russia has frozen the price of milk, bread, eggs and cooking oil for six months. Thailand is also planning a freeze on food staples.<br /><br />After protests around Indonesia, Jakarta has increased public food subsidies. India has banned the export of rice, except the high-quality basmati variety.<br /><br />"For us, the main concern is for the poorest countries and the net food buyers," said Frederic Mousseau, a humanitarian policy adviser at Oxfam. "For the poorest populations, 50% to 80% of income goes on food purchases. We are concerned now about an immediate increase in malnutrition in these countries, and the landless, the farm workers there, all those who are living on the edge."<br /><br />Much of the blame has been put on the transfer of land and grains to the production of biofuel. But its impact has been outweighed by the sharp growth in demand from a new middle class in China and India for meat and other foods, which were previously viewed as luxuries.<br /><br />"The fundamental cause is high income growth," said Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute. "I estimate this is half the story. The biofuels is another 30%. Then there are weather-induced erratic changes, which caused irritation in world food markets. These things have eaten into world levels of grain storage.<br /><br />"The lower the reserves, the more nervous the markets become, and the increased volatility is particularly detrimental to the poor, who have small assets."<br /><br />The impact of climate change will amplify that already dangerous volatility. Record flooding in West Africa, a prolonged drought in Australia and unusually severe snowstorms in China have all had an impact on food production.<br /><br />"The climate-change factor is so far small but it is bound to get bigger," Von Braun said. "That is the long-term worry and the markets are trying to internalise it."<br /><br />The WFP is holding an emergency meeting in Rome on Friday, at which its senior managers will meet board members to brief them on the scale of the problem. There will then be a case-by-case assessment of the seriousness of the situation in the affected countries, before the WFP formally asks for an increased budget at its executive board meeting in June.<br /><br />But the donor countries are also facing higher fuel and transport costs. For the biggest US food-aid programme, non-food costs now account for 65% of total programme expenditure.<br /><br />Global impact: Where inflation bites deepest<br /><br />1. United States<br />The last time America's grain silos were so empty was in the early Seventies, when the Soviet Union bought much of the harvest. Washington is telling the WFP it is facing a 40% increase in food commodity prices compared with last year, and higher fuel bills to transport it, so the US, the biggest single food aid contributor, will radically cut the amount it gives away.<br /><br />2. Morocco<br />Thirty-four people jailed this month for taking part in riots over food prices.<br /><br />3. Egypt<br />The world's largest importer of wheat has been hard hit by the global price rises, and most of the increase will be absorbed in increased subsidies. The government has also had to relax the rules on who is eligible for food aid, adding an extra 10,5-million people.<br /><br />4. Eritrea<br />It could be one of the states hardest hit in Africa because of its reliance on imports. The price rises will hit urban populations not previously thought vulnerable to a lack of food.<br /><br />5. Zimbabwe<br />With annual inflation of 100 000% and unemployment at 80%, price increases on staples can only worsen the severe food shortages.<br /><br />6. Yemen<br />Prices of bread and other staples have nearly doubled in the past four months, sparking riots in which at least a dozen people were killed.<br /><br />7. Russia<br />The government struck a deal with producers last year to freeze the price of milk, eggs, vegetable oil, bread and kefir (a fermented milk drink). The freeze was due to last until the end of January but was extended for another three months.<br /><br />8. Afghanistan<br />President Hamid Karzai has asked the WFP to feed an extra 2,5-million people, who are now in danger of malnutrition as a result of a harsh winter and the effect of high world prices in a country that is heavily dependent on imports.<br /><br />9. Pakistan<br />President Pervez Musharraf announced this month that Pakistan would be going back to ration cards for the first time since the 1980s after the sharp increase in the price of staples. These will help the poor (nearly half the population) buy subsidised flour, wheat, sugar, pulses and cooking fat from state-owned outlets.<br /><br />10. India<br />The government will spend 250-billion rupees on food security. India is the world's second biggest wheat producer but bought 5,5-million tonnes in 2006, and 1,8-million tonnes last year, driving up world prices. It has banned the export of all forms of rice other than luxury basmati.<br /><br />11. China<br />Unusually severe blizzards have dramatically cut agricultural production and sent prices for food staples soaring. The overall food inflation rate is 18,2%. The cost of pork has increased by more than half. The cost of food was rising fast even before the bad weather moved in, as an increasingly prosperous population began to demand as staples agricultural products previously seen as luxuries. The government has increased taxes and imposed quotas on food exports, while removing duties on food imports.<br /><br />12. Thailand<br />The government is planning to freeze prices of rice, cooking oil and noodles.<br /><br />13. Malaysia and the Philippines<br />Malaysia is planning strategic stockpiles of the country's staples. Meanwhile, the Philippines has made an unusual plea to Vietnam to guarantee its rice supplies. Imports were previously left to the global market.<br /><br />14. Indonesia<br />Food price rises have triggered protests and the government has had to increase its food subsidies by over a third to contain public anger.<br /><br />FAQ: Food prices<br />Few winners and many losers<br /><br />What is the problem?<br />In the three decades to 2005, world food prices fell by about three-quarters in inflation-adjusted terms, according to the Economist food prices index. Since then they have risen by 75%, with much of that coming in the past year. Wheat prices have doubled, while maize, Soya and oilseeds are at record highs.<br /><br />Why are food prices rising?<br />The booming world economy has driven up prices for all commodities. Changes in diets have also played a big part. Meat consumption in many countries has soared, pushing up demand for the grain needed by cattle. Demand for biofuels has also risen strongly. This year, for example, one third of the US maize crop will go to make biofuels. Moreover, the gradual reform and liberalisation of agricultural subsidy programmes in the US and Europe have reduced the butter and grain mountains of yesteryear by eliminating overproduction.<br /><br />Who are the winners and losers?<br />Farmers are the obvious winners, as are poor countries that rely extensively on food exports. But consumers are having to pay more, and the urban poor in many developing states will be hardest hit, as they often spend more than a third of their income on food.<br /><br />How long are prices likely to be high?<br />The US Department for Agriculture says the country's wheat stocks are at their lowest for 50 years and demand will continue to exceed supply this year. There is potential to bring more land into production in countries such as Ukraine, but that could take time. And as all foodstuffs have risen sharply in price there is little incentive for farmers to switch from one crop to another.<br /><br />What about the EU's common agricultural policy?<br />High food prices certainly remove the need to subsidise farmers and so there is a chance, say experts, that badly needed reductions in CAP subsidies, which cost European taxpayers dearly, could now be within reach.<br /><br />Are other commodity prices also rising?<br />Oil, metals and coal have seen their prices rise strongly as the global economy has expanded rapidly, driving up demand for almost everything, particularly from emerging economies such as China and India. Some economists think speculation may also play a part. Disappointed by the subprime collapse and falling property values in many countries, investors have piled money into commodities. -- guardian.co.uk © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2008Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-73896564399046665232008-02-25T01:34:00.001-08:002008-02-25T01:34:48.983-08:00Sheep Aids hits hundreds of farmsSheep Aids hits hundreds of farms<br /><br /> February 25 2008 at 07:22AM<br /><br />By Karen Breytenbach<br /><br />The Department of Agriculture has appealed to Western Cape sheep farmers to remain calm in the face of the spread to hundreds of farms of Ovine Johne's Disease, better known as "sheep Aids" because of the emaciation it causes.<br /><br />The disease was first detected on 47 farms in Caledon, Ceres and Mossel Bay a decade ago, but has slowly spread to hundreds of farms, especially in the Caledon area and Southern Cape. Some cases were also reported in Cradock in Eastern Cape.<br /><br />But the Western Cape Agriculture Department has moved to reassure farmers that their interests would be protected. "The situation is under control, we have vets working on it full-time," said spokesperson Alie van Jaarsveld.<br /><br />Click here!<br /><br /><br /><br />'The situation is under control'<br />Johne's Disease (OJD), or paratuberculosis, is a chronic and contagious disease found worldwide, characterised by persistent diarrhoea, weight loss, debilitation and eventual death.<br /><br />It is considered a problem in South Africa because it is hard to detect and can cause losses of up to 20 percent of sheep in very infected flocks.<br /><br />During a 1996/7 survey of 1 718 farms, when 47 showed infection, tests were ineffective, causing half of infected farms to skip detection.<br /><br />Van Jaarsveld said an official count of sheep affected was not available yet, but the mutton market could suffer if it spread further and it was decided on slaughtering.<br /><br />For now, the Small Stock Health Advisory Body has urged that heavily infected areas be declared "OJD Control Areas" to allow free movement of live<br />animals within these confines, but to prevent their transportation to the outside world, except for slaughter.<br />'We have vets working on it full-time'<br /><br />The body also advised farmers to vaccinate their sheep and announced the requirement of vendor declarations on their flocks' OJD status.<br /><br />OJD surveys would be conducted in areas that had not so far come across infection.<br /><br />Van Jaarsveld said the enforcement of the Animal Disease Regulations, requiring the isolation and slaughter of infected animals and the isolation and testing of all animals in contact with them, would hit sheep farmers hard.<br /><br />"In an effort to minimise this impact, but at the same time to prevent spread of this disease to uninfected flocks and areas, the veterinary services... launched an intensive round of workshops and meetings with the view to formulate a policy to address this situation," Van Jaarsveld said.<br /><br />This led to the formation of the advisory body, which will present its final policy proposals to Agriculture Minister Lulu Xingwana and provincial authorities for acceptance and promulgation into law.<br /><br />The provincial department would also provide funding for post-graduate research on OJD.<br /><br /># karen.breytenbach@inl.co.zaVan Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-63827500743068018522008-02-03T09:50:00.000-08:002008-02-03T09:51:16.602-08:00Isaiah 30 (New International Version)<h3>Isaiah 30 (New International Version)</h3> <div class="publisher-info-inset"> <strong><a href="http://www.biblegateway.com/versions/?action=getVersionInfo&vid=31">New International Version</a> (NIV)</strong><p> Copyright © 1973, 1978, 1984 by <a href="http://www.ibs.org/">International Bible Society</a></p><a href="http://www.biblegateway.com/bg_versions/bgclick.php?what=22"><img src="http://www.biblegateway.com/bg_versions/bgview.php?what=22" lt="NIV at IBS" title="NIV at IBS" align="middle" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://www.biblegateway.com/bg_versions/bgclick.php?what=10"><img src="http://www.biblegateway.com/bg_versions/bgview.php?what=10" lt="International Bible Society" title="International Bible Society" align="middle" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://www.biblegateway.com/bg_versions/bgclick.php?what=26"><img src="http://www.biblegateway.com/bg_versions/bgview.php?what=26" lt="NIV at Zondervan" title="NIV at Zondervan" align="middle" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://www.biblegateway.com/bg_versions/bgclick.php?what=2"><img src="http://www.biblegateway.com/bg_versions/bgview.php?what=2" lt="Zondervan" title="Zondervan" align="middle" border="0" /></a><br /></div> <h4>Isaiah 30</h4><h5> Woe to the Obstinate Nation </h5> <span id="en-NIV-18219" class="sup">1</span> "Woe to the obstinate children,"<br /> declares the LORD,<br /> "to those who carry out plans that are not mine,<br /> forming an alliance, but not by my Spirit,<br /> heaping sin upon sin; <p> <span id="en-NIV-18220" class="sup">2</span> who go down to Egypt<br /> without consulting me;<br /> who look for help to Pharaoh's protection,<br /> to Egypt's shade for refuge. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18221" class="sup">3</span> But Pharaoh's protection will be to your shame,<br /> Egypt's shade will bring you disgrace. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18222" class="sup">4</span> Though they have officials in Zoan<br /> and their envoys have arrived in Hanes, </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18223" class="sup">5</span> everyone will be put to shame<br /> because of a people useless to them,<br /> who bring neither help nor advantage,<br /> but only shame and disgrace." </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18224" class="sup">6</span> An oracle concerning the animals of the Negev:<br /> Through a land of hardship and distress,<br /> of lions and lionesses,<br /> of adders and darting snakes,<br /> the envoys carry their riches on donkeys' backs,<br /> their treasures on the humps of camels,<br /> to that unprofitable nation, </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18225" class="sup">7</span> to Egypt, whose help is utterly useless.<br /> Therefore I call her<br /> Rahab the Do-Nothing. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18226" class="sup">8</span> Go now, write it on a tablet for them,<br /> inscribe it on a scroll,<br /> that for the days to come<br /> it may be an everlasting witness. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18227" class="sup">9</span> These are rebellious people, deceitful children,<br /> children unwilling to listen to the LORD's instruction. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18228" class="sup">10</span> They say to the seers,<br /> "See no more visions!"<br /> and to the prophets,<br /> "Give us no more visions of what is right!<br /> Tell us pleasant things,<br /> prophesy illusions. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18229" class="sup">11</span> Leave this way,<br /> get off this path,<br /> and stop confronting us<br /> with the Holy One of Israel!" </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18230" class="sup">12</span> Therefore, this is what the Holy One of Israel says:<br /> "Because you have rejected this message,<br /> relied on oppression<br /> and depended on deceit, </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18231" class="sup">13</span> this sin will become for you<br /> like a high wall, cracked and bulging,<br /> that collapses suddenly, in an instant. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18232" class="sup">14</span> It will break in pieces like pottery,<br /> shattered so mercilessly<br /> that among its pieces not a fragment will be found<br /> for taking coals from a hearth<br /> or scooping water out of a cistern." </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18233" class="sup">15</span> This is what the Sovereign LORD, the Holy One of Israel, says:<br /> "In repentance and rest is your salvation,<br /> in quietness and trust is your strength,<br /> but you would have none of it. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18234" class="sup">16</span> You said, 'No, we will flee on horses.'<br /> Therefore you will flee!<br /> You said, 'We will ride off on swift horses.'<br /> Therefore your pursuers will be swift! </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18235" class="sup">17</span> A thousand will flee<br /> at the threat of one;<br /> at the threat of five<br /> you will all flee away,<br /> till you are left<br /> like a flagstaff on a mountaintop,<br /> like a banner on a hill." </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18236" class="sup">18</span> Yet the LORD longs to be gracious to you;<br /> he rises to show you compassion.<br /> For the LORD is a God of justice.<br /> Blessed are all who wait for him! </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18237" class="sup">19</span> O people of Zion, who live in Jerusalem, you will weep no more. How gracious he will be when you cry for help! As soon as he hears, he will answer you. <span id="en-NIV-18238" class="sup">20</span> Although the Lord gives you the bread of adversity and the water of affliction, your teachers will be hidden no more; with your own eyes you will see them. <span id="en-NIV-18239" class="sup">21</span> Whether you turn to the right or to the left, your ears will hear a voice behind you, saying, "This is the way; walk in it." <span id="en-NIV-18240" class="sup">22</span> Then you will defile your idols overlaid with silver and your images covered with gold; you will throw them away like a menstrual cloth and say to them, "Away with you!" </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18241" class="sup">23</span> He will also send you rain for the seed you sow in the ground, and the food that comes from the land will be rich and plentiful. In that day your cattle will graze in broad meadows. <span id="en-NIV-18242" class="sup">24</span> The oxen and donkeys that work the soil will eat fodder and mash, spread out with fork and shovel. <span id="en-NIV-18243" class="sup">25</span> In the day of great slaughter, when the towers fall, streams of water will flow on every high mountain and every lofty hill. <span id="en-NIV-18244" class="sup">26</span> The moon will shine like the sun, and the sunlight will be seven times brighter, like the light of seven full days, when the LORD binds up the bruises of his people and heals the wounds he inflicted. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18245" class="sup">27</span> See, the Name of the LORD comes from afar,<br /> with burning anger and dense clouds of smoke;<br /> his lips are full of wrath,<br /> and his tongue is a consuming fire. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18246" class="sup">28</span> His breath is like a rushing torrent,<br /> rising up to the neck.<br /> He shakes the nations in the sieve of destruction;<br /> he places in the jaws of the peoples<br /> a bit that leads them astray. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18247" class="sup">29</span> And you will sing<br /> as on the night you celebrate a holy festival;<br /> your hearts will rejoice<br /> as when people go up with flutes<br /> to the mountain of the LORD,<br /> to the Rock of Israel. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18248" class="sup">30</span> The LORD will cause men to hear his majestic voice<br /> and will make them see his arm coming down<br /> with raging anger and consuming fire,<br /> with cloudburst, thunderstorm and hail. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18249" class="sup">31</span> The voice of the LORD will shatter Assyria;<br /> with his scepter he will strike them down. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18250" class="sup">32</span> Every stroke the LORD lays on them<br /> with his punishing rod<br /> will be to the music of tambourines and harps,<br /> as he fights them in battle with the blows of his arm. </p><p> <span id="en-NIV-18251" class="sup">33</span> Topheth has long been prepared;<br /> it has been made ready for the king.<br /> Its fire pit has been made deep and wide,<br /> with an abundance of fire and wood;<br /> the breath of the LORD,<br /> like a stream of burning sulfur,<br /> sets it ablaze.</p>Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-64022481653742392922008-01-27T14:08:00.000-08:002008-01-27T14:09:04.623-08:00South Africa - Civil War or Peaceful split?<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> <a href="http://uncle-cracker.blogspot.com/2007/12/south-africa-civil-war-or-peaceful.html">South Africa - Civil War or Peaceful split?</a> </h3> <p><strong>South Africa - Civil war or Peaceful split?<br />By Mike Smith – Cape Town 9 December 2007<br /><br /></strong>Watching the current power struggle within the ANC, it is clear that the party can no longer exist in its current form after the Polokwane conference or in the run-up to the 2009 elections. A split is inevitable. This will be no peaceful divorce. The split will be messy and we will see similar scenes as that of the early ‘90s; Xhosas against Zulus, Communism against Tribal Nationalism, basically one big orgy of violence and death.<br /><br />In the early ‘90s the white population of South Africa was mostly excluded from this fight and it was only the army and police who actually got involved trying to keep the sides separate. This time around it will be different. Whites will be sucked into this future conflict and it will be during this time that we might see the Afrikaners reclaiming their two Boer Republics. The Zulu’s will claim KwaZulu Natal and the Cape Coloureds along with some liberal whites will claim the Cape. This break-up of South Africa is a serious possibility if we look at some examples.<br /><br />The first example is the former Yugoslavia, an artificially created Kingdom since 1918 and an artificially created Socialist state since 1943, until its breakup in 1991. Yugoslavia today are split up into six independent countries and two autonomous provinces and it serves as an example of what happens when different races, cultures and religions are forced together in the name of multiculturalism, diversity and “Nation building”. It is artificial and it cannot last!<br /><br />We further saw in Yugoslavia that the Communist never give up land or grants a people autonomous rule without a fight. The various freedom wars were bloody and the conflicts are still not fully solved, as can be noted in Kosovo.<br /><br />A bloody civil war is not always the answer. Are there examples of countries that have had peaceful splits? Yes certainly.<br /><br />Norway peacefully separated from Sweden in 1905. Norway's growing dissatisfaction with the union with Sweden during the late 19th century combined with nationalism prompted the dissolution of the union. After a national referendum confirmed the people's preference for a monarchy over a republic, the Norwegian government offered the throne of Norway to the Danish Prince Carl and Parliament unanimously elected him king. He took the name of Haakon VII, after the medieval kings of independent Norway. Today the relationship between Norway and Sweden is better than it ever was when they were in a union.<br /><br />Czechoslovakia is another example. In February 1948 the Communists seized power, winning an electoral victory in May. The country was divided into 19 regions and, in 1960, into 10 regions plus Prague and Bratislava. During the 1960’s there were some uprisings and calls for democratic change, but in 1968 the USSR sent 600,000 troops to brutally suppress these demonstrations and return rule to the orthodox line.<br /><br />Influenced by events elsewhere in Eastern Europe, a series of initially student-led pro-democracy rallies were held in Prague in November 1989. The 10 million Czechs saw economic reform as more important than State reform, which was high on the priority list of the 5 million Slovaks. Instead of fighting and blocking each other, the Czechs and the Slovaks decided that a split would be in the best interest of both sides. Many people who were opposed to the split, said that it would be catastrophic, but it went smoothly. Buildings in the Czech part were given to the Czechs and those in Slovakia to the Slovaks. Moving assets and debt were split up evenly and the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic became sovereign states on 1 January 1993.<br /><br />Recently we have seen the creation of the Scottish parliament, giving the Scots more self rule and it might even lead to an independent Scotland in the future. I certainly will not rule that possibility out.<br /><br />In Belgium we see the Dutch speaking Flemish wanting to break away from the French speaking Wallonians. The Flemish are economically stronger than the Wallonians and so strong is the cultural and language divide between these two groups, that less than one percent of all Belgium marriages are between Flemish and Wallonians; this in a country where these two groups are both white and Christian. People there say that the split is coming soon, it is only a matter of time and the fuse of the powder keg is burning ever shorter. I certainly hope that the split will be a peaceful one.<br /><br />If we now turn our attention to South Africa, it is only logical to deduce that South Africa will go the same way as Yugoslavia. South Africa was also artificially created in 1910. The two British colonies of the Cape and Natal along with the two former Boer Republics of the ZAR and the Orange Freestate, were forced together into the Union of South Africa and former autonomous states were reduced to mere provinces. When the ANC took over, they made it nine provinces and artificially created what Mandela refers to as “The Rainbow Nation”. South Africa has nine official languages and fourteen major tribes or ethnic groupings, each with its own distinct culture, traditions and religion. It is madness to think that these groups will live “peacefully” together for much longer. The Marxist, terrorist ANC’s policies of multiculturalism and ethnic diversity is a ticking nuclear time bomb, let alone a burning fuse on a powder keg.<br /><br />My prediction is that the break up of South Africa will start in KwaZulu-Natal with some student uprisings. The Zulus want to be independent; next will follow the two Boer Republics and lastly the Cape. It is during this time that other smaller nations will also claim independence and new borders will be defined.<br /><br />A peaceful split would definitely be in the best interest of all, but somehow I do not think it will be possible; not as long as the Communists are in control of South Africa.</p>Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-60266626344164046442008-01-18T11:57:00.000-08:002008-01-18T11:58:30.561-08:00Zechariah 14<dl compact="compact"><dd>10And from Geba to Rimmon in the Negeb, all the land shall turn into a plain; but Jerusalem shall remain exalted in its place. From the Gate of Benjamin to the place of the First Gate, to the Corner Gate; and from the Tower of Hananel to the king's wine presses, </dd><dt><a name="v11">11 </a> </dt><dd>they shall occupy her. Never again shall she be doomed; Jerusalem shall abide in security. </dd><dt><a name="v12">12 </a> </dt><dd>And this shall be the plague with which the LORD shall strike all the nations that have fought against Jerusalem: their flesh shall rot while they stand upon their feet, and their eyes shall rot in their sockets, and their tongues shall rot in their mouths. </dd><dt><a name="v13">13 </a> </dt><dd>On that day there shall be among them a great tumult from the LORD: every man shall seize the hand of his neighbor, and the hand of each shall be raised against that of his neighbor.</dd></dl><br /><br />woord vir die dag ...........................gee net so 6 maande<br /><dl compact="compact"><dt><a name="v14">14 </a> </dt><dd>Judah also shall fight against Jerusalem. The riches of all the surrounding nations shall be gathered together, gold, silver, and garments, in great abundance. </dd><dt><a name="v15">15 </a> </dt><dd>Similar to this plague shall be the plague upon the horses, mules, camels, asses, and upon all the beasts that are in those camps. </dd><dt><a name="v16">16 </a> </dt><dd>All who are left of all the nations that came against Jerusalem shall come up year after year to worship the King, the LORD of hosts, and to celebrate the feast of Booths. </dd><dt><a name="v17">17 </a> </dt><dd>If any of the families of the earth does not come up to Jerusalem to worship the King, the LORD of hosts, no rain shall fall upon them. </dd><dt><a name="v18">18 </a> </dt><dd>And if the family of Egypt does not come up, or enter, upon them shall fall the plague which the LORD will inflict upon all the nations that do not come up to celebrate the feast of Booths. </dd><dt><a name="v19">19 </a> </dt><dd>This shall be the punishment of Egypt, and the punishment of all the nations that do not come up to celebrate the feast of Booths. </dd><dt><a name="v20">20 </a> </dt><dd>On that day there shall be upon the bells of the horses, "Holy to the LORD." The pots in the house of the LORD shall be as the libation bowls before the altar. </dd><dt><a name="v21">21 </a> </dt><dd>And every pot in Jerusalem and in Judah shall be holy to the LORD of hosts; and all who come to sacrifice shall take them and cook in them. On that day there shall no longer be any merchant in the house of the LORD of hosts. </dd></dl>Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-80780931230178372222008-01-05T02:03:00.001-08:002008-01-05T02:03:29.909-08:00Zuma: 'n geleentheid vir die Afrikaner?<table class="contentpaneopen"><tbody><tr><td class="contentheading" width="100%"> Zuma: 'n geleentheid vir die Afrikaner? </td> <td class="buttonheading" align="right" width="100%"> <a href="javascript:void window.open('http://praag.org/mambo/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=1244', 'win2', 'status=no,toolbar=no,scrollbars=yes,titlebar=no,menubar=no,resizable=yes,width=640,height=480,directories=no,location=no');" title="PDF"> <img src="http://praag.org/mambo/images/M_images/pdf_button.png" alt="PDF" name="image" align="middle" border="0" /> </a> </td> <td class="buttonheading" align="right" width="100%"> <a href="javascript:void window.open('http://praag.org/mambo/index2.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1244&Itemid=37&pop=1&page=0', 'win2', 'status=no,toolbar=no,scrollbars=yes,titlebar=no,menubar=no,resizable=yes,width=640,height=480,directories=no,location=no');" title="Druk"> <img src="http://praag.org/mambo/images/M_images/printButton.png" alt="Druk" name="image" align="middle" border="0" /> </a> </td> <td class="buttonheading" align="right" width="100%"> <a href="javascript:void window.open('http://praag.org/mambo/index2.php?option=com_content&task=emailform&id=1244', 'win2', 'status=no,toolbar=no,scrollbars=yes,titlebar=no,menubar=no,resizable=yes,width=400,height=250,directories=no,location=no');" title="Epos"> <img src="http://praag.org/mambo/images/M_images/emailButton.png" alt="Epos" name="image" align="middle" border="0" /> </a> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table class="contentpaneopen"><tbody><tr> <td colspan="2" align="left" valign="top" width="70%"> <span class="small"> Geskryf deur Dan Roodt </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" class="createdate" valign="top"> Woensdag, 19 Desember 2007 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" valign="top"> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;"><img src="http://praag.org/mambo/images/stories/danr0000.jpg" alt="Image" title="Image" align="left" border="0" height="90" hspace="6" width="70" />Teen dié tyd weet almal dat Jacob Zuma die ANC-leierskapsverkiesing loshande gewen het met 2 329 stemme teenoor Mbeki se 1 505. Die Zuma-faksie het ook skoonskip gemaak sover dit die res van die hoogste posisies in die party betref.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Dat Zuma daarin geslaag het om Mbeki te klop, is geen geringe prestasie nie. Immers geniet Mbeki die steun van die sakewêreld, die media, die koloniale mag Brittanje wat hom oor die afgelope jare konstant met Suid-Afrika bemoei, asook die oorblyfsels van die vorige Afrikaner-establishment in die vorm van Nasionale Pers, Marthinus van Schalkwyk en die Afrikanerbond. Een van die segsmanne van dié groepering, prof. Willie Esterhuyse, het ʼn sleutelrol onder Mbeki gespeel om hom van inligting te voorsien oor hoe Afrikaners beter verdeel en verdruk kon word.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Met Zuma se verkiesing betree die land ʼn nuwe, potensieel stormagtige fase. Terwyl Zuma oor die afgelope jaar of twee uitgereik het na Afrikaners, is sy oorwinning egter ook verseker deur die linkse faksie in die vorm van Cosatu, die ANC-jeugliga en die SAKP. Watter invloed die linkse faksie oor hom uitoefen, is in dié stadium nog onseker.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Vanuit die buiteland gaan daar groot druk op Zuma toegepas word om nie te veel aan Suid-Afrika se ekonomiese beleid te torring nie. As ons praat van die buiteland, dan is dit veral Groot Brittanje wat sal poog om soos altyd in die verlede ons binnelandse beleid te beïnvloed om Britse belange voorop te stel. </span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Die mynhuise word hoofsaaklik uit Londen beheer en dus sal Brittanje wil sien dat mynwinste en –produksie nie geraak word nie. Daarteenoor staan Brittanje, asook die vele Britse nie-regeringsorganisasies wat in die land bedrywig is, radikale grondhervorming voor sodat Afrikanerboere finaal van hul eiendom ontneem kan word. Soos mnr. Willie Lewies van die TLU dit al so dikwels gestel het, sal die grondlose Afrikaner in daardie geval ʼn “swerwersvolk” word.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Die Boer-Britstryd gaan dus onder Zuma se presidentskap voortduur en afhangend van wie se kant hy kies, sal Afrikaners dit moet ontgeld, aldan nie. Vanweë die feit dat Brittanje, asook die VSA, tot dusver die Mbeki-faksie geondersteun het, wil dit voorkom asof Afrikaners darem ʼn billike kans staan om invloed op ʼn Zumaregering uit te oefen. Sodoende kan ons boere, asook Afrikaanse onderwys en kultuur, van die gewisse ondergang gered word waarvoor hulle onder Mbeki bestem was.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Op Pietersburg was die ANC duidelik sterk verdeel tussen die Zuma- en Mbeki-faksies. Die vraag is nou: kan die ANC in die afsienbare toekoms in twee skeur? Myns insiens is dié moontlikheid glad nie uitgesluit nie. Die Mbeki-faksie het nog glad nie gaan lê ná die bloedneus by die partykongres nie. Hulle beheer nog steeds die staatsapparaat en mag dit gebruik om Zuma nog verder in hofsake vas te draai of hom selfs tronk toe te stuur. In so ʼn geval sal die Zuma-faksie waarskynlik tot revolusionêre optrede in die vorm van massa-aksie, betogings en selfs die bestorming van die Uniegebou oorgaan om die Mbeki-faksie uit die kussings te lig.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Soos gesê, geniet Mbeki steeds die steun van Brittanje en kan die Britte via hul magtige media en hul intelligensiediens allerlei planne bedink om Zuma uit die weg te ruim, letterlik of figuurlik.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Wat Afrikaners egter moet besef, is dat die volgende twee jaar aan ons geleenthede bied om te midde van die grootskaalse verdeeldheid in ANC-geledere, asook die Britte wat beheer begin verloor, ons belange te bevorder en moontlik selfs terug te keer na die politieke spel in Suid-Afrika.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Hoewel hy taamlik onvoorspelbaar is en te eniger tyd ʼn ommeswaai kan maak, is die populistiese Zuma ʼn interessante figuur in die SA politiek. Anders as Mandela of Mbeki, word hy nie soos ʼn marionet vanuit Engeland beheer nie en geniet hy steun op voetsoolvlak en veral onder Zoeloes. Hy is die spreekwoordelike swart Piet in die pak kaarte wat die spel deurmekaar kan krap.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Ons Afrikaners moet nou begin saamstaan en kyk of ons nie hier ʼn paar kastaiings uit die vuur kan krap nie. Reeds meer as ʼn jaar gelede het ʼn klein groepie van ons die versiendheid gehad om te sien dat daar ʼn magsverskuiwing aan die kom was en het daarom vroegtydig met Zuma gesprek begin voer. Hierdie gesprekke moet voortgaan en ons moet probeer om in ruil vir Afrikanersteun toegewings van Zuma te verkry, veral indien hy onder druk van die Mbeki-faksie, die Britte, asook Groot Besigheid in Suid-Afrika, sou kom.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">Die logika van “my vyand se vyand is my vriend” wil hê dat Zuma die Afrikaner se vriend is. Dit mag ook wees dat die Afrikaner-Zoeloe-alliansie waaroor daar al jare lank in regse Afrikanerkringe gedroom word, met Zuma se hulp tot stand kan kom.</span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;">So iets sal egter slegs gebeur indien Afrikaners met verbeelding, intelligensie en vasberadenheid begin optree.</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table>Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-64740285580779956232007-12-26T12:35:00.001-08:002007-12-26T12:35:57.839-08:00Iranian Navy receives stealth-capable submarine - national TVIranian Navy receives stealth-capable submarine - national TV<br />17:31<br /><br />28/ 11/ 2007<br /><a onclick="popup('/world/20071128/89970209-print.html','printversion','menubar=1,toolbar=1,resizable=0,location=0,status=0,scrollbars=1','680','500'); return false;" href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20071128/89970209-print.html"></a><br />TEHRAN, November 28 (RIA Novosti) - Iran's Navy commissioned Wednesday a domestically designed and produced light submarine featuring extended stealth capability and strong firepower, state television reported.<br />The submarine, dubbed Ghadir, is reportedly fitted with noise-reduction features and is capable of firing missiles and torpedoes simultaneously.<br />"This submarine is equipped with advanced weapons and electronics systems. It has been developed in the last decade by [Iranian] scientists and engineers," a TV program quoted Navy commander, Admiral Habib Sayyari, as saying.<br />The admiral also said the Navy commissioned a destroyer and a missile boat.<br />According to various intelligence reports, Iran has been spending a considerable share of its defense budget on modernizing its naval forces over the last decade.<br />"The Iranian Navy - surface ships, submarines and naval bases - is equipped with all the necessary modern weaponry, including missiles," Sayyari said. "Their [the missiles] range is sufficient to protect effectively our southern flank in the Persian Gulf."<br />In a separate development, Iran, which received no invitation to the Mideast peace conference in Annapolis, announced on Tuesday <a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20071127/89792583.html">that it had produced a ballistic missile</a> with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles). The missile's range would allow it to reach Israel, as well as United States military bases in the Middle East.<br /><a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20071128/89970209.html">http://en.rian.ru/world/20071128/89970209.html</a>Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-45092132696824814792007-12-26T12:34:00.000-08:002007-12-26T12:35:03.961-08:00Russia to sell advanced air defense systems to Iran - 2Russia to sell advanced air defense systems to Iran - 2<br />18:01<br /><br />26/ 12/ 2007<br /><a onclick="popup('/world/20071226/94238985-print.html','printversion','menubar=1,toolbar=1,resizable=0,location=0,status=0,scrollbars=1','680','500'); return false;" href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20071226/94238985-print.html"></a><br />(Adds Russian official's quote, details on Tor-M1 crew training in paras 13-14)<br />TEHRAN, December 26 (RIA Novosti) - Iran signed a contract with Russia on Tuesday for the delivery of advanced S-300 air defense missile systems to the Islamic Republic, an Iranian news agency reported on Wednesday.<br />An advanced version of the S-300 missile system, called S-300PMU1 (SA-20 Gargoyle), has a range of over 150 kilometers (about 100 miles) and can intercept ballistic missiles and aircraft at low and high altitudes, making this system an effective tool for warding off possible air strikes on Iran.<br />"S-300 air defense systems will be delivered to Iran under an earlier contract signed with Russia," the Fars news agency quoted Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar as saying.<br />The minister provided no contract details or a schedule for future deliveries, Fars said.<br />The signing of the deal follows last week's session of the Russian-Iranian commission on military-technical cooperation in Tehran, where the sides reviewed existing agreements and discussed future steps to extend cooperation in the military sphere.<br />The closest western equivalent of the S-300 is the U.S. MIM-104 Patriot system or the U.S. Navy RIM-66 Standard Missile 2 (SM-2).<br />U.S. authorities have repeatedly called on Russia to stop arms deliveries to countries whose political regimes Washington disapproves of, including Iran.<br />However, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in October that Russia would not take into consideration attempts to impose arms deal restrictions "based on unilateral and politicized assessments".<br />He also said deliveries of Russian weapons were aimed exclusively at increasing the defense capability of the countries receiving them, and at maintaining their stability.<br />Russia earlier supplied Iran with 29 Tor-M1 air defense systems under a $700-million contract signed in late 2005.<br />In February, Tehran successfully tested Tor-M1s during a military exercise by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in southern Iran.<br />The Iranian defense minister said on Wednesday that during last week's meeting Russian and Iranian officials discussed the possibility of using Russian experts to train the crews of Iranian Tor-M1 systems in the Islamic Republic.<br />Meanwhile, a senior Russian military official said that dozens of Iranian Tor-M1 specialists, including radar operators and crew commanders had already completed training in Russia in 2006 and 2007.<br />"They [the Iranians] have successfully completed the training program and returned home," said Colonel General Nikolai Frolov, commander of the Ground Forces' air defense.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-4727076582530627372007-12-04T04:43:00.001-08:002007-12-04T04:43:53.708-08:00XDR-TB is taking its toll on patientsXDR-TB is taking its toll on patients<br />14 November 2007, 09:23<br />Related Articles<br /><a title="Despite having a cure, TB is number 1 killer" href="http://www.thepost.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=vn20071113032302274C904758">Despite having a cure, TB is number 1 killer</a><br /><a title="'I told them I was dying'" href="http://www.thepost.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=vn20071113031843625C240740">'I told them I was dying'</a><br /><a title="Manto slams scientists as 'ill-informed'" href="http://www.thepost.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=vn20071110082243694C569696">Manto slams scientists as 'ill-informed'</a><br />DisplayAds('MPUAV');<br /><br /><a href="http://adserver.adtech.de/adlink%7C585%7C1426922%7C0%7C170%7CAdId=1511514;BnId=2;itime=772163108;key=news+south%20africa;nodecode=yes;link=http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/N3643.IOL/B2443417.6;dcadv=1437625;sz=250x250;abr=!ie4;abr=!ie5;ord=772163108?"><br /></a><br />By Louise FlanaganSouth Africa has identified 481 extremely drug-resistant tuberculosis patients so far - and nearly half have died.Statistics from the Department of Health show that 216 XDR-TB patients died by the end of last month, while almost 90 percent of the survivors - 235 - were in hospital. The department recorded just five patients who defaulted on treatment and three more who had not started treatment.Gauteng has seen 37 patients, or 8 percent of the total. Of these, 11 have died and 20 are being treated in hospitals.The biggest caseload is in KwaZulu Natal, the province where the disease was first identified in early 2005. It has seen 188 cases, or 39 percent of the country's total.The Eastern Cape has the second-highest burden, with 157 patients (33 percent), followed by the Western Cape with 64 (13 percent) and then Gauteng.The department said the statistics reflected only true XDR-TB cases.XDR-TB is TB which is resistant to the two first-line drugs used against TB plus at least two of the six main classes of second-line drugs.The Health Ministry emphasised yesterday that all confirmed XDR-TB patients would be admitted to multi-drug-resistant TB units until they tested negative, which usually took at least six months.<br />This article was originally published on page 2 of <a href="http://www.thestar.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=4127142" target="_blank">The Star</a> on November 14, 2007Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-35199542088588268462007-12-04T04:39:00.000-08:002007-12-04T04:42:00.749-08:00Why quarantine may backfireWhy quarantine may backfire<br />Created: Wednesday, November 14, 2007<br />Recently a patient was shot and a guard stabbed when XDR-TB patients were protesting at the Sizwe hospital in Edenvale. According to reports the patients were unhappy with some of the medicines they were receiving and wanted passes allowing them to leave the hospital.<br /><br /><a href="http://ad.doubleclick.net/click;h=v8/361e/0/0/%2a/x;126090258;0-0;0;15787476;4307-300/250;23703657/23721510/1;;~sscs=%3fhttp://www.health24.com/specials/reuteri_new/reuteri.html" target="_blank"></a><br />AdvertisementThe incident illustrates some of the difficulties regarding enforced isolation of XDR-TB patients and is symbolic of what some critics consider to be the department of health's harsh response to the threat posed by XDR-TB.In fact, at some sessions at last week's 38th Union World Conference on Lung Health the general feeling seemed to be that forced isolation is not the most effective way to face the threat of XDR-TB.<br />According to Nathan Geffen, spokesperson for the Treatment Action Campaign,incarceration is a bad idea for various reasons, which he lists as follows:<br />It is at hospitals and clinics that most XDR infections are taking place.<br />It can never be done on a scale that would make a significant difference to the epidemic.<br />It scares people off getting screened for TB and therefore might have a very deleterious effect on managing the epidemic.<br />People who get locked up without having committed a crime realise their human rights are being breached. Sometimes they riot, as happened at Sizwe hospital. It's particularly cruel to incarcerate people with fatal diseases for six months or more, especially children.<br />In a statement on the issue, the South African Medical Research Council warns that, "Public anxiety coupled with the risk that XDR-TB may rise to epidemic levels in SA is putting increased pressure on government and public health authorities for quarantine of patients and coercive measures to curtail the spread of XDR-TB. The dual stigma associated with TB and HIV, now compounded by XDR-TB, poses a real risk of driving the XDR-TB problem underground, especially if isolation measures are coercive. This is a situation that SA can ill afford."<br />Perspective on the diseaseAccording to Judy Seidman, writing in the Mail and Guardian, quarantine of actively infectious people forms a standard part of the medical response to drug-resistant TB. The emphasis here is very strongly on "actively infectious."<br />She points out that, "many people with TB (and even XDR-TB) are not infectious. Patients who do not cough do not spread infection through the air. Patients who respond to treatment are no longer infectious after the drugs take effect. Patients need to be quarantined only until the drugs start to work - for days, not weeks or months."<br />On a similar note, much of the societal concern with drug-resistant forms of TB seems to be based on misconceptions regarding the disease.<br />According to the World Health Organization (WHO), drug-resistant forms of TB are not more infectious than strains that are not drug resistant. In fact since they are less prevalent, the risk of being infected is much lower.<br />According to the WHO, "the majority of healthy people with normal immunity may never become ill with TB, unless they are heavily exposed to infectious cases who are not treated or who have been on treatment for less than about one week. Even then, 90% of people infected with TB bacteria never develop TB disease. This applies to XDR-TB as well as to ‘ordinary’ TB."<br />Why HIV ups the riskThus, unless your immunity is compromised and you are in relatively close contact with an infected person in a closed space, the risk of infection is very low. This is why there is a particularly high risk of drug-resistant forms of TB spreading in hospitals. The compromised immunity is also what places HIV-infected people at a higher risk.<br />The WHO writes that, "People with HIV infection, however, in close contact with a TB patient, are more likely to catch TB and fall ill. The TB patients whom they meet should be encouraged to follow good cough hygiene, for example, covering their mouths with a handkerchief when they cough, or even, in the early stages of treatment, using a surgical mask, especially in closed environments with poor ventilation."<br />The way forwardVoices at the conference generally seemed to be in favour of a decentralised, community-based model in the fight against drug-resistant TB.<br />According to Geffen, "What we've got to do is improve infection control in health facilities."<br />"XDR patients should be educated on infection control measures (e.g. cough etiquette, maybe wearing masks and a few other simple measures) that can reduce the risk of them passing on the disease," he said.<br />Government not budgingThe department of health, however, seems very much to be keeping the focus on the isolation of infected persons.<br />Presenting South Africa's new plan to fight TB at last week's conference, the director general of the department of health, Thami Mseleku, said the department is looking for ways to make it easier to commit people with drug-resistant tuberculosis to treatment facilities against their will.<br />Until now, health authorities had to get a high court order every time they wanted to commit someone who posed a danger to the community.<br />"We're still exploring the alternatives," he said. The department was looking for clauses in existing legislation that would allow "a general approach to the matter".<br />On the legality of enforced isolation, the MRC writes that, "current health legislation in SA empowers authorities to detain patients with infectious diseases until the disease no longer poses a public health threat, thereby allowing quarantine restrictions to be enforced for a limited period. Herein lies the dilemma: many XDR-TB patients may have untreatable disease and confinement would have to be until death or, conceivably, could be indefinite. From a human rights perspective prolonged isolation could, without sufficient procedural safeguards, violate several SA Constitutional rights and international human rights law."<br />According to Seidman, the media's response, like that of the government, has been rather one-dimensional. She writes, " These articles present arguments saying we should protect ourselves by harsh “control” of sick people, even where this negates their human -- and constitutionally guaranteed -- rights. This theme has become our most common response to XDR-TB."<br />False sense of securityIn the New England Journal of Medicine, researchers write that, "excessive reliance on compulsory measures can lull the public into a false sense of security and at the same time prompt people who are at risk to do exactly what Speaker did — run." (Andrew Speaker is an American man who fled from authorities after being diagnosed with drug-resistant TB.)<br />They continue writing that, "fortunately, most persons infected with tuberculosis want treatment and have no desire to infect others. When clinicians and health officials work with patients and have their trust, most will co-operate. By ensuring that coercion is used only when less restrictive alternatives will not work and with due regard for the rights of those detained, the law can foster public trust, minimizing the need for compulsion and laying the groundwork for the comprehensive and costly control programs needed to prevent the spread of XDR tuberculosis and other contagious pathogens."<br />- (Marcus Low, Health24)<br />Sources:Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-28341820337056933842007-12-04T04:22:00.001-08:002007-12-04T04:22:27.822-08:00SOUTHERN AFRICA: Struggling with soaring cereal pricesSOUTHERN AFRICA: Struggling with soaring cereal prices<br />Photo: <a style="COLOR: #999999" href="http://www.irinnews.org/" target="_blank">IRIN</a> <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/PhotoDetail.aspx?ImageId=2112037" target="_blank"></a><br />Bread is not on the menuJOHANNESBURG, 12 October 2007 (IRIN) - Record high wheat prices globally are forcing consumers in Southern Africa to dig deeper into their pockets: the price of bread has almost doubled since the beginning of the year, and according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), have already caused <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=74097">food riots</a> in some parts of the world.Wheat and maize prices have been at their highest in the past few months: the price of yellow maize doubled from an average of US$88 per metric tonne (mt) in 2000 to $177 per mt in February 2007, while the price of wheat rose from an average of $119 per mt in 2000 to $277 per mt in August 2007. The combination of higher export prices and soaring freight rates has pushed up domestic prices of bread and other basic foodstuffs in importing developing countries, hitting the group of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries particularly hard, said Paul Racionzer, of the FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System. A drop in production has been reported in major exporting countries – which are also among the leading stockholders – notably the United States, where stocks are forecast to sink to a 10-year low of 11 million mt, as well as in Australia, Canada and the European Union (EU), said the FAO's Crop Prospects and Food Situation report for October. "Among other countries, sharply smaller stocks are forecast for Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, and nearly all major wheat producing countries in the <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=74353" target="_blank">CIS</a> [Commonwealth of Independent States]." Racionzer said lower wheat production in major exporting countries was expected to result in a drawdown of at least 14 million mt in world inventories to 143 million mt, the lowest in 25 years. Consequently, the price of wheat has shot up to an all-time high of $343 per mt, compared to $208 per mt at the same time in 2006. "Those high prices have spilled over to other markets, impacting on the prices of most other cereals," he commented. "Higher grain prices are wearing through the food chain, increasing the cost of many basic food items, which has already led to social unrest in some countries such as <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=74097">Uzbekistan</a>, <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=72163">Yemen</a> and Morocco." Drought-hit Southern African countries are net importers of wheat, and in Namibia and Botswana the price of bread has almost doubled since January. But the FAO is particularly concerned over the impact of high wheat prices on Swaziland and Lesotho, which had their worst-ever harvest. "The cost of importing the wheat will put a huge strain on their economies," said James Breen, the FAO's Regional Emergency Agronomist.<br />Higher grain prices are wearing through the food chain, increasing the cost of many basic food items, which has already led to social unrest in some countries such as Uzbekistan, Yemen and Morocco Swaziland's annual cereal production this year was 22kg per head, while Lesotho produced 38kg per head, against an annual requirement of 180kg per head in both countries, according to the report on a joint FAO and World Food Programme crop and food supply assessment mission. Unable to access maizemeal, their staple food, the Swazis and the Basotho have had to buy bread, which has become at least 20 percent more expensive since the beginning of 2007. In South Africa the cost of wheat is 125 percent higher than it was in 2005, a local magazine, The Farmers' Weekly, pointed out. Phumzile Mdladla, who heads the Southern Africa office of the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS-NET), said the price of wheat had almost doubled, from $246 per mt in October 2006 to an average of $455 per mt last week, which was higher than the international price. Earlier in the year, political organisations in South Africa suggested fixing the price of bread, but this was ruled out by the government. "Food security has two legs, namely availability and affordability," said Jannie de Villiers, head of the South African Chamber of Baking, the national millers' association, who welcomed the government’s response. "The free market in agriculture has proven very successful in assuring the availability of food to all South Africans. We have, however, in the past ten years of deregulation experienced two cycles of very high food prices, which seriously impact on the affordability of food to especially the poor and vulnerable groups in our communities." The industry had not only had to contend with sharply higher wheat prices, but ever-increasing fuel costs. "The distribution cost constitutes almost a third of the total cost of baking and distributing bread," said de Villiers. "We are doing our utmost to delay passing on these huge spikes in our wheat and flour prices." The outlook According to the FAO's Racionzer, production could improve next year. "In the United States, conditions are generally favourable for fieldwork, and although planting has got off to a slower start than normal, early indications all point to the likelihood of a record area." Winter wheat crops for harvest in 2008 are already being planted.<br />Unable to access maizemeal, their staple food, the Swazis and the Basotho have had to buy bread, which has become at least 20 percent more expensive since the beginning of 2007 The EU has removed its 10 percent obligatory set-aside requirement for 2008, which could return up to an estimated three million hectares of arable land to production for the season, he added. Under the requirement, producers had to set aside a defined percentage of their declared areas to limit cereal production in the EU. In a press release in late September, the EU said removal of the set-aside should increase the 2008 cereals harvest by at least 10 million mt; intervention stocks have shrunk from 14 million mt at the beginning of 2006/07 to around one million mt at present. Racionzer said, "Early indications from the large producing areas in eastern Europe also suggest that farmers have intentions to plant larger wheat areas if weather and inputs allow." However, based on the latest forecasts for world production and utilisation in the FAO's latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, global cereal stocks, including wheat, are expected to stand at 420 million mt by the close of the seasons in 2008. This is unchanged from the reduced opening levels, and only three million mt above the 20-year low in 2004. "The food price situation is not going to improve any time soon," said the FAO's Breen<br /><br /><a href="http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=74758">http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=74758</a>Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-83559640480755630942007-12-04T04:13:00.001-08:002007-12-04T04:13:25.740-08:00FEWS Southern Africa Food Security Outlook Oct 2007 - Mar 2008FEWS Southern Africa Food Security Outlook Oct 2007 - Mar 2008<br />This report covers the period from 9/13/2007 to 10/30/2007<br />The FEWS NET Outlook for Southern Africa incorporates the findings from six country outlooks for the period October 2007 to March 2008. This outlook provides a basis for regional and global resource allocation and contingency planning, as well as in-country planning. This report summarizes the results of this process for Southern Africa, highlighting what FEWS NET believes are the major threats to food security in the period October 2007 to March 2008.<br />The most likely regional food security scenario between October 2007 and March 2008 is a continued decline in food security conditions in areas now facing moderate to high levels of food insecurity as noted above. The exception is Zimbabwe, where the situation as at end of September is expected to improve marginally between October and December, as the number of areas with high levels of food insecurity declines as a result of improvements in emergency interventions. The situation will however deteriorate again between January and March, during which the hunger season peaks, and more districts become moderately food insecure. This analysis takes into account the regional seasonal forecast which in general indicates a normal to above normal rainfall season for the period of the outlook.<br />The worst case scenario would arise if the assumptions under the most likely scenario do not hold, and instead, conditions deteriorate leading to extremely high levels of food insecurity, particularly in Zimbabwe and southern and central Mozambique, countries which face moderate to extreme food insecurity even in the most likely scenario. The situation would be further exacerbated if rainfall performance is poor with a delayed start and/or lengthy dry spells. Extreme levels of food insecurity will arise in parts southern Mozambique in the period October to December; while in Zimbabwe, most extreme levels would occur in the January to March 2008 period.<br />In Lesotho and Swaziland, where widespread food insecurity has been assessed, the situation is likely to be mitigated through on-going emergency interventions targeted at vulnerable households. However adequate assistance will depend on improvements in the responses to appeals for resources by governments and humanitarian agencies. Currently the UN appeals for emergency assistance are 18 percent funded in Swaziland, and 49 percent in Lesotho.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-3956240994788001012007-12-04T04:07:00.000-08:002007-12-04T04:08:05.860-08:00Uganda: Forecast for 2008 - Famine, Floods, Fear And Fighting<a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/200709210989.html">http://allafrica.com/stories/200709210989.html</a><br /><br />COLUMN21 September 2007Posted to the web 21 September 2007<br />Timothy Kalyegira<br />For most of the year since about February, something strange has come over Kampala. A city, usually warm and pleasant all year round, has taken on the chilly weather often associated with high altitude western Ugandan towns like Kabale and Fort Portal.<br />A few of us who enjoy sleeping nude can no longer do so. We are now experiencing the much-dreaded effects of the climate change, so long forewarned about.<br />GA_googleFillSlot("AllAfrica_Story_Inset");<br />At the beginning of August as the rainy season started, the United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organisation, in a report, spoke optimistically about the prospects for a good food harvest in several countries of West Africa.<br />Sure enough the rain came. But this was not rain. It was something maniacal. When you start getting 12 inches of rain in a week, it becomes the worst of nightmares. In this case, they are worst nightmares in living memory for Africa.<br />The casual and often quoted remarks by some politicians from northern Uganda that should the National Resistance Movement government continue to neglect the north, it will break off and form a Nile Republic, appeared to inadvertently come to reality.<br />Vital bridges over rivers in Acholi and Teso have been destroyed by the greatest floods in more than 60 years, if not more. Access by road to many parts of the north has become impossible. By an act of nature, a Nile Republic virtually cut off from the rest of Uganda has been created.<br />The government this week declared a state of emergency. (The last time such a state was declared was in December 1969 over Buganda, in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of president Milton Obote.)<br />Take a look at a map and see the African countries that have most been affected by the current deluge of rain: Uganda, Mali, Rwanda, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Senegal, Chad, Ghana, Sudan, Kenya, Niger, Togo, the Gambia, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, and Mauritania.<br />By some strange coincidence, these are the same countries that are either in the grip of civil war, are on the verge of or in a delicate state in which civil war is always possible or live in the neighbourhood of centres of conflict.<br />Even away from my endless talk of a seer's predictions, more conventional sources speak much the same thing. In its annual review of the year 1984, Compton Encyclopedia stated: "In 1984 famine continued to threaten millions of Africans, particularly in the southern, eastern, and Sahelian regions of the continent....The drought damaged the economies of almost half of the continent's 51 countries and contributed to further reductions in food production."<br />It continues: "Forecasting the situation by 2008, the UN Economic Commission for Africa warned of 'unimaginable poverty and a proliferation of shanty town full of beggars, delinquents, and job-hunters engaged in a desperate struggle for survival.'" (Compton's Yearbook, 1985, page 5).<br />What does all this mean?<br />Already, a crisis that seldom makes front-page news has been creeping upon the world. It is the rising world food prices. As world oil prices have risen and the Middle East remained unstable, there has been a move away from fossil fuels like petroleum to increasing experimentation with fuel extracted from ethanol.<br />Most ethanol is taken from maize, wheat, and cow dung. Because of this, a large stock of world maize (or in American English, corn) production has been diverted to the production of ethanol.<br />So, the world has sought to fight high oil prices and the pollution of the earth's climate by turning to cereals --- which is now, most ironically, producing a new crisis, the shortage of food and increase in world food prices.<br />What are the costs of this?<br />In Africa, 18 countries (a third of the 53 countries) have seen their harvest devastated by massive flooding. Much of the world, from Asia to Europe and North America, has also experienced abnormal heavy rains and floods, with millions of acres of farm land destroyed.<br />After these massive rains will obviously come an extended period of drought and dry conditions. This means that in the next two years, even the World Food Programme will start finding it difficult to raise the emergency food it needs to help stricken areas.<br />Relevant Links<br /><a class="blue" href="http://allafrica.com/eastafrica/">East Africa</a> <a class="blue" href="http://allafrica.com/climate/">Climate</a> <a class="blue" href="http://allafrica.com/sustainable/">Sustainable Development</a> <a class="blue" href="http://allafrica.com/uganda/">Uganda</a><br />Imagine a combination of a world food shortage, high and rising world food prices, extremes of weather that is either dust or floods, then world oil prices recently reaching new record highs of more than 83 US dollars a barrel (or drum).<br />To all this, add the civil wars gathering steam in or near the same 18 African countries that have been treated to a Biblical Noah-like floods and suddenly (if it had not yet occurred to you, 2008) starts looking like a year of disaster with no compare.<br />We are about to witness the social conditions portrayed in Charles Dickens' novels or depressing urban life, with millions of people reduced to a grim, animal-like existence.Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-90205044755768173432007-12-01T09:50:00.000-08:002007-12-01T09:51:19.168-08:00HUMAN POPULATION AND GLOBAL WARMINGHUMAN POPULATION AND GLOBAL WARMING<br />By Gary W. Harding<br />The relationship between humans and the state of the ecosystem is not only dependent upon how many people there are, but also upon what they do. When there were few people, the dominant factors controlling ecosystem state were the natural ones that have operated for millions of years. The human population has now grown so large that there are concerns that they have become a significant element in ecosystem dynamics. One of these concerns is the relationship between human activities and climate, particularly the recent observations and the predictions of global warming, beginning with the alarm sounded by W. Broecker (1975).<br />The relationships among humans, their activities and global temperature can be assessed by making the appropriate measurements and analyzing the data in a way that shows the connections and their magnitudes. Human population can be closely estimated and the consequences of their activities can be measured. For example, the volume of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions is an indicator of human's energy and resource consumption. An examination of population size, atmospheric concentrations of these gases and global temperature relative to time and with respect to each other is presented here to demonstrate the relations among these factors.<br />POPULATION GROWTH<br />Many of us have seen linear graphs of human population showing the enormous growth in the last two centuries. However, significant changes in population dynamics are lost in the exponential growth and long time scales. If the data are replotted on a log-population by log-time scale, significant population dynamics emerge. First, it is apparent that population growth has occurred in three surges and second, that the time between surges has dramatically shortened (Deevey, 1960).<br />Figure 1. Population (Log-population verses log-time since 1 million years ago). Time values on x-axis, ignoring minus sign, are powers of 10 years before and after 1975 (at 0). Vertical dashed-line at 1995. Filled circles for known values are to left of 1995 and open circles on and to right of 1995 are for projected values. (Data updated from Deevey, 1960).<br />Deevey's 1960 graph has been brought up to date in Figure 1 to reflect what has been learned since then. The data have been plotted relative to 1975 with negative values before 1975 and positive values thereafter. The reason for this will become clear below. The values of the time scale, ignoring the minus signs, represent powers of 10 years.<br />It has been argued that a population crash occurred about 65,000 years ago (-4.8, Fig. 1), presumably due to the prolonged ice-ages during the preceding 120,000 years (Gibbons, 1993). Humans came close to perishing and Neanderthal became extinct. However, by 50,000 years ago (-4.6, Fig. 1), humans had generated population mini-explosions all around the planet. Deevey's data for population size since 500 years ago have been replaced with more recent estimates taken from The World Almanac, (1992 - 1995) including population projections out to 2025. A vertical dashed-line has been placed at 1995. Filled symbols for the known values are to the left of it and open symbols on and to the right of it are for values projected into the short-term future.<br />The first surge coincides with the beginning of the cultural revolution about 600,000 years ago, interrupted by the population crash 65,000 years ago. Population size rebounded 50,000 years ago and then growth slowed considerably. The second surge began with the agricultural revolution about 10,000 years ago and was followed by slow growth. Deevey argued that moving down the food chain was the underlying cause of this large and rapid spurt. The timing of the present surge matches the rise of the industrial-medical revolution 200 years ago.<br />A relation between innovation and population growth is embedded in the log-log plot. There was rapid growth at the start of each surge. Then, growth rate slowed as people adapted to the precipitating innovations. Each surge increased the population more than 10-fold. It appears that we are nearing the end of the present surge as recent growth rates have declined. After the initial spurt, subsequent innovations did not perpetuate growth rates. The only significant innovations were those that produced the next surge. However, accumulated innovations during the surges may have played a role in the eventual decline in population growth rates. Starting with high birth and death rates, death rate declines and longevity increases, but birth rates stay high. Some time later, birth rates decline so that eventually, net births minus deaths produces slow growth. The result is a spurt in population size. When referring to the industrial revolution, this phenomenon has been called the "demographic transition". It appears that this dynamic may have occurred twice before.<br />The decreases in time between surges suggests that, if past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior, we are due for another surge. It may have already begun, as indicated by the upturn in the projections at the right end of the curve in Figure 1. What might the basis for another surge be? One can think of several possibilities, including the "green revolution" and the "global economy". A dominant element in past surges has been innovations in energy use (e.g., fire, descending the food-chain, beasts of burden, fossil fuels, high-energy agriculture). Thus, the development of an abundant and cheap energy source would have a profound effect. Another 10-fold (or more) surge would produce a population of 60 to 125 billion.<br />GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND GREENHOUSE GASES<br />Figure 2. Greenhouse Gases and Mean Global Temperature (Greenhouse gas concentrations and mean global temperature verses time). Time scale same as in Fig. 1. Gas-concentration data have been normalized to the 0 to 1 scale on left: CO2 (squares) - 190 to 430 ppm; CH4 (triangles) - 600 to 2400 ppb; N2O (diamonds) - 280 to 340 ppb. Mean global temperature (circles) plotted relative to oC on right. Vertical dashed-line at 1995, horizontal dotted line at maximum CO2 concentration and global temperature over human history before 1990. Filled and open symbols same as in Fig. 1. Projections in short-term future are based upon continuation at current growth rates. (Data measured from graphs in Gribbin, 1990 and Khalil and Rasmussen, 1992).<br />Mean-global-temperature (MGT) is related to the concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor and other trace gases) in the atmosphere. The most prevalent greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2). It has been shown that there is a strong relation between the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and MGT over the last 160,000 years (Gribbin, 1990). It has been suspected that the burning of fossil fuels and the clearing of land has reached such proportions that these activities have precipitated a significant increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been directly measured since about 1960 and have been determined over the more distant past from air-bubbles trapped in old Antarctic, Greenland and Siberian ice and from deep-sea sediments. Mean-global-temperature has also been measured directly over the last few decades. Estimates of global temperature in the distant past have been deduced from a variety of sources. From these data, the relation among atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, MGT and time is illustrated in Figure 2.<br />The time scale in Figure 2 is the same as that in Figure 1. Because CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations have different scales, the data have been normalized on a 0 to 1 scale on the left. For CO2 (squares; Gribbin, 1990), 0 is equivalent to 190 parts per million (ppm) and 1 is equivalent to 430 ppm. For CH4 (triangles; R. Cicerone in Gribbin, 1990), the range is 600 to 2400 parts per billion (ppb). For N2O (diamonds; Khalil and Rasmussen, 1992), the scale is 280 to 340 ppb. Mean global temperature (circles; Gribbin, 1990) has been graphed relative to the degrees-centigrade scale on the right. The vertical dashed-line is the same as that in Figure 1. The horizontal dotted-line is the highest CO2 concentration and temperature in human history before 1990. Greenhouse-gas concentrations and MGT in the short-term future are based upon continuation at the current growth rates. This will be justified in another context below.<br />Figure 3. Population and Global Warming (CO2 concentration and mean global temperature verses log-population) CO2 concentration (circles) and mean global temperature (squares) plotted relative to their absolute scales, ppm on the left and oC on the right, respectively. Vertical dashed line at 1995. (Data from Figs. 1 and 2)<br />It is clear that the concentrations of all three gases have increased exponentially since 1950 (-1.4, Fig. 2) and that MGT has done so since 1975. Carbon dioxide concentration began to rise in conjunction with the use of fossil fuels after 1850. Although methane comes from a variety of sources, including plant decay, termites and bovine flatulence, CH4 concentration rises at the same time as CO2. This is probably due to its association with fossil-fuel production. Nitrous oxide concentration does not begin to rise until 1950. At this time, the use of human-made fertilizers and internal-combustion-engine exhaust increased dramatically. Ten thousand years ago (-4, Fig. 2), MGT increased substantially just as the agricultural revolution got started. Over the previous 200,000 years, the ecosystem was dominated by ice-ages. Projected MGT in 2025 (1.7, Fig. 2) is about 17oC, 1.5oC higher than in human history prior to 1990.<br />POPULATION AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE<br />We have seen in Figures 1 and 2 that recent population, atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations and MGT have grown exponentially over about the same time-course. The relation of CO2 and MGT relative to population size can be observed by graphing these variables as above. Figure 3 shows this graph, where the log of population replaces log-time and CO2 concentration (circles) and MGT (squares) are plotted relative to their absolute scales, ppm on the left and oC on the right, respectively. The vertical dashed-line denotes 1995, as in Figures 1 and 2. When the population reached 4 billion in 1975, the converging relation between population and the other two variables becomes apparent.<br />The magnitude of the relations in Figures 2 and 3 can be determined by calculating the correlation coefficient between pairs of variables. Table 1 lists these coefficients for the population, greenhouse-gas concentration and MGT variables that we have been examining. The coefficients for the relations during the industrial revolution, 1800 through 1994, are above the diagonal of the table. The coefficients since 2000 years ago through 1994 are below the diagonal. Over the past 2000 years, there is a nearly perfect correlation between the concentration of greenhouse gases and population and between the greenhouse gases themselves. However, the correlations between both population and greenhouse-gas concentrations and MGT (bottom row) are not as strong. After 1800, the latter correlations increase to near perfection (rightmost column). The conclusion from the graphs and table is that there is a strong relationship among population size since 1800, greenhouse-gas concentrations and MGT.<br />TABLE 1. Correlation coefficients among population size, atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations and mean global temperature (1800 through 1994 above the top-left to bottom-right diagonal, n=10; 2000 years ago through 1994 below the diagonal, n=15).<br />Pop CO2 CH4 N2O Temp<br />Pop .996 .984 .977 .916<br />CO2 .990 .994 .974 .942<br />CH4 .991 .992 .949 .945<br />N2O .959 .943 .942 .932<br />Temp .718 .716 .728 .829<br />GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE<br />Determining that there is a strong relation between population size and global warming does not tell us what the underlying mechanisms are. However, documentation of the relationship between human activities and the release of greenhouse gases produces a strong inference that population size and global warming are closely related (Gribbin, 1990).<br />Forecasting the future is risky business. Growth rates for greenhouse-gas concentrations and MGT could decline from those at present due to unanticipated innovations or natural events. For example, volcanoes can spew enough ash into the atmosphere to block sunlight and temporarily reduce MGT slightly. However, short-term continued growth at current rates is probably an underestimate. Although population growth rate has slowed, the population is still growing. The dominating factor is that per-capita energy and resource consumption rates are increasing much faster than the population. This is not only due to anticipated increases in standards of living in underdeveloped countries, but also to future increases in the demand for energy in the developed countries (e.g., air conditioning) as summer temperatures rise. Since most of the energy will come from fossil fuels, at least for the next few decades, we can expect the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and MGT to rise in the short-term future at a faster rate than they have recently. As MGT rises, water vapor, another greenhouse component, will become a more and more significant factor due to increased evaporation.<br />Although a 1.5oC increase in MGT above where we were in 1990 (1990 to 2025 in Fig. 2) does not seem like much of a change, it is enough to precipitate major changes in climate. A 1.5oC drop in MGT from where we were in 1990, for example, would put the ecosystem on the verge of an ice-age. Already, there is a suspicion that, since 1975, the persistent El Nino is the first sign of the relation between global warming and climate (Kerr, 1994). As MGT increases further, we can expect more frequent and severe hurricanes and perpetual summertime droughts in many places, particularly in the US Midwest. Paradoxically, more intense winter storms will occur in some places and climatic conditions for agriculture will improve in some areas, such as in Russia (Gribbin, 1990; Bernard, 1993).<br />There has been considerable debate over the ecosystem's carrying capacity for humans. If we define that carrying capacity as the level that the ecosystem can support without changing state more than it has over the duration of human history, then Figures 2 and 3 indicate that we exceeded that capacity in 1975. This is the point in time where exponential growth began to push MGT along a path which has taken it outside the previous range. This does not necessarily mean that humans could not survive if MGT is about 2oC higher than it has ever been in their history. However, we will have to adapt to a radically different climate pattern and, if MGT goes any higher than that, there could be disastrous problems.<br />If MGT continues to increase beyond 2025 to 4oC above that in 1990, high-northern-latitude temperatures could be as much as 10oC higher than at the equator. The Arctic ice-cap would begin to melt and the permafrost under the tundra would start thawing out. As a consequence, a thick layer of rotting peat would contribute further to atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations (Gribbin, 1990). With a number of human-made and natural positive-feedback elements in operation simultaneously, a threshold could be crossed (Meyers, 1995; Overpeck, 1996). Are these risks that we should be willing to take for the sake of short-term gains?<br />REFERENCES<br />Bernard, H. W. Jr., "Global Warming Unchecked", Indiana Univ. Press, Bloomington, 1993<br />Broecker, W., Science, 189:460, 1975<br />Deevey, E. S., Scientific American, 203:195, 1960<br />Gibbons, A. , Science, 262:27, 1993<br />Gribbin, J. , "Hothouse Earth", Grove Weidenfeld, New York, 1990<br />Kerr, R. A., Science, 266:544, 1994<br />Khalil, M. A. K. and R. A. Rasmussen, J. Geophys. Res., 97:4651, 1992<br />"The World Almanac", Pharos, New York, 1992 - 1995<br />Meyers, N. Science 269:358, 1995<br />Overpeck, J. T. Science, 271:1820, 1996<br />Post Script<br />After this document was written (about a 2 years ago), two books came out which provide much more detail relevant to some of these issues:<br />HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN THE EARTH SUPPORT? by Joel E. Cohen; Norton, 1995.<br />DIVIDED PLANET: THE ECOLOGY OF RICH AND POOR by Tom Athanasiou; Little Brown, 1996.<br />Both are superbly done and provide a much more comprehensive and up to date treatment of the population and economic topics included here.<br />Recent evidence (Mora et al.; SCIENCE 271:1105, 1996) indicates that the possibility of a "greenhouse runaway" on Earth is much more remote than indicated at the end of the previous version of this document. Therefore, the former apocalyptic ending has been changed. Although the data presented points to a catastrophic conclusion, this was (perhaps) an overstatement of the case.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://members.aol.com/trajcom/private/popco2.htm">http://members.aol.com/trajcom/private/popco2.htm</a>Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4493822879598886844.post-62146433479979737152007-11-23T12:50:00.000-08:002007-11-23T12:51:18.077-08:00Food prices: Africa shows first signs of trouble<a href="http://ad.za.doubleclick.net/click;h=v8/3613/0/0/%2a/d;150931315;0-0;0;16450589;5725-220/240;23191985/23209837/2;;~sscs=%3fhttp://www.wetpaint.co.za/Sony/Surveillance/index.htm" target="_blank"></a><br />Recent violent unrest over soaring food prices in several West African nations points to new signs of trouble on a continent where nearly half the people live on a dollar a day, experts warn.After Mauritania and Morocco, Senegal this week was the latest country hit by violent protests.The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation chief Jacques Diouf last month warned of a "risk of social and political troubles in Third World nations in the months or years to come" due to the global rise in cereal prices."Soaring international prices have obviously had much more impact in the countries that depend a lot on imports for their [food] needs," UN World Food Programme (WFP) spokesperson for West Africa Stephanie Savariaud told Agence France-Presse.The mounting demand for biofuels and escalating prices of fossil fuels mean farmers cultivate less food in preference of fast cash-spinning biofuel crops.And the internationally rising oil prices are reflected in imported food costs."The growing demand for biofuels and the high prices of fossil fuel have a dramatic impact on millions of people," said Savariaud."Food prices in Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau and Senegal shot up steeply in 2007," she said, citing countries that depend heavily on imported staples.In the vast and arid Mauritania, where national cereal output is less than 30% of needs, the price of imported flour shot up nearly 100% -- from $200 per ton last year to $360 in September, according to WFP.Shops there were vandalised and torched earlier this month to protest spiralling food prices, leaving one person dead and 17 wounded.In Morocco, about 50 people were injured during September food protests.Escalating food prices have affected almost every nation on the continent, but so far without sparking the kind of violent outbreaks witnessed in West Africa, home to the greatest number of the world's most poverty-stricken countries.Chances of controlling the high food bills are not easy in the short term, warned FAO chief of Global Information and Early Warning System, Henri Josserand."It is something that cannot be changed quickly," he said."Prospects are not good for countries that strongly rely on imports because in the short-to-medium term, we forecast that food prices will remain extremely firm, at least in the next 10 years," Josserand said.Countries are therefore left with no choice but to change dietary habits by substituting imports with local produce, said Josserand. But home-grown food production is also threatened by climate change, with the continent facing desertification and in cases oscillating between extreme conditions of droughts and floods.Climate change might mean African countries that depend on rain for food production would harvest half their normal output 12 years from now, WFP chief Josette Sheeran warned during a visit to West Africa last week.Climate change, rising food prices and population growth could combine to create a "perfect storm" on the continent, she said.Already in the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, three-quarters of the 60-million people don't have enough food and 1,5-million are actually facing hunger, according to WFP.And so far, the leading coping mechanism is hunger.From Côte d'Ivoire in West Africa to Southern Africa's worst-hit Zimbabwe, already buckling under the world's highest inflation rate, families have no option but to skip a meal or two a day in an effort to stretch the little available. -- Sapa-AFP<br /><br /><a href="http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=325865&area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__africa/">http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=325865&area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__africa/</a><br /><br /><br />This is biblical ---- Famine will take 1/3Van Tonder Die Donderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17515803300199377625noreply@blogger.com3